OCTA: 7-day average in new cases up 969%
IN just a matter of 10 days, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation in the National Capital Region (NCR) went from “very low risk” to “high risk” classification, the independent OCTA Research said late Saturday.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said: “In one week, the seven-day average in new cases increased from 90 to 962 (from December 26 to January 1), an increase of 969%.”
“With the increase, NCR is now classified as high risk,” he added.
Aside from the surge in the average new cases, David said the reproduction number in the NCR has increased to 4.05, which is the highest since April 1, 2020.
This is much higher than the 0.92 reproduction rate set a week earlier by OCTA.
Similarly, David said the seven-day average in positivity rate increased to 12.94 percent, which is way higher than the 1.15 percent positivity rate just a week ago.
In a separate radio interview, David said they are worried that the surge may exceed the previous ones seen in the country over the past two years.
“Right now, if you look at the raw numbers, it looks like we’re going to surpass the numbers that we’ve seen in past surges. We are not predicting it yet. But it seems like we’re heading there,” he said.
In September 11 last year, the DOH reported the country’s highest number of cases in a day at 26,303.
David believes the situation “may not be as bad” as in past surges because of the high number of Filipinos who are already vaccinated against COVID-19. There are already 49.79 million fully vaccinated Filipinos, and 57.14 million partially vaccinated individuals.
“Let us assume that you can still get the virus despite being vaccinated already… Hopefully, by end of January or early February, we can already get over this new wave,” David said.
David also expressed hopes that the reimposition of Alert Level 3 will help curb transmissions in Metro Manila.
“There will be no lockdowns at this time. But people should be aware of the risks of going out. In this way, they can determine if the risk is worth taking,” he said.
Malacañang announced last Friday that the NCR will be under Alert Level 3 from January 3 to 15, 2022 due to the detection of local cases of the Omicron variant, which now totals to 14.
BED OCCUPANCY
With cases climbing rapidly, OCTA noted how the hospital bed occupancy and the ICU bed occupancy rates in the Metro Manila have increased in the past week.
“The number of occupied hospital beds for COVID-19 in the NCR increased by 41% over a span of one week, from 1,381 on December 24 to 1,942 on December 31,” it said.
“ICU occupancy for COVID-19 increased by 37%, from 231 to 316, over the same period,”
it added.
Despite this, David said the overall hospital bed occupancy rate and the ICU bed occupancy rate in the NCR remain at “very low” levels.
“Overall, hospital bed occupancy in the NCR is at 23%, while ICU occupancy is at 25%, both are considered to be very low at this time,” said David.
MASS TESTING
At the House, Bayan Muna party-list Rep. Carlos Zarate said it is high time for the government to implement the “much inadequate, even delayed, but still crucial free COVID mass testing together with pro-active contact tracing as well as faster and more efficient vaccine roll out.”
“We strongly call on Pres. Duterte to finally listen to the oft repeated but unheeded call for free mass testing because the COVID surges are becoming a vicious cycle. As the new year starts with the reimposition of Alert Level 3 in the National Capital Region (NCR), we also call on our people to be vigilant as the government may make this as a prelude to another militaristic new lockdown,” he said.
With the feared community transmission of the Omicron variant, the militant lawmaker said the people want to see the government listen to medical experts “rather than military generals in dealing with the Covid pandemic.”
Albay Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda said the country’s best defense against the Omicron variant of COVID-19 will be “an ability to accommodate the infected and heal them fast,” citing studies that show that the variant is highly infectious but less lethal that the Delta variant.
“It is essential for economic recovery that we do not lose the momentum in demand and job creation that we have already sustained,” said Salceda, chair of the House committee on ways and means.
Since Omicron appears to be more infectious while being less lethal than most variants, Salceda said the infected should be immediately and treated quickly by reactivating unused isolation centers.
“Omicron appears like it will result in similar numbers as Delta, but the lethality will be much less serious. Of course, that depends on getting treatment right and keeping hospitals ready,” he said.
The House tax chief also called on the Department of Health to beef up its procurement of COVID-19 therapeutics.
“We have to be ready with the retro-virals. There are funds, and I believe we can also activate DRR funds if it has to come to that,” he said. “Overall, if we make the necessary hospital capacity and treatment expansions, we will barrel through.”
Salceda said Congress is also willing to make amendments to the budget “to ensure that we can buy therapeutics, ventilators, and other medical needs should hospitalizations surge.”
His panel is also working with the Bureau of Customs to ensure that COVID-19 medicines, which are VAT-exempt under the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Law, can be released to the hospitals as soon as they arrive in Philippine ports. — With Wendell Vigilia
