DOH also sees PH down to low-risk rating
WITH the number of COVID-19 cases continuously declining, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III yesterday said the country may be placed under the “low-risk” classification “very soon” and mobility restrictions in the National Capital Region (NCR) may be eased to Alert Level 2 by December.
“Our two-week growth rate is at negative 44 percent for the whole country, while the average daily attack rate is at 7.72, which is almost at moderate risk level,” Duque said In a television interview
“This means that the whole Philippines will be at low risk anytime soon, very soon,” he added.
The Philippines is at “moderate risk” classification based on DOH data.
In another interview, Duque said the lower alert level in Metro Manila may be implemented in December.
“We hope that this would continue and a downward trend becomes more definitive so that we will be able to deescalate from Alert Level 3,” he said.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said there is strong possibility that Metro Manila will be placed under Alert Level 2 if the seven-day average of 1,156 new cases goes down further.
“If this number continues to decline, it is very possible that we can be deescalated in the coming weeks,” said Vergeire in a separate television interview.
“Hopefully, all of us will not be complacent, and all of us will work together so that we can reach that goal of having the Alert Level 2 in NCR,” she added.
Vergeire’s statement comes as the NCR is currently under Alert Level 3 from October 16 to 31.
Aside from declining COVID-19 cases, Duque said the hospital utilization rate has also gone down in recent weeks.
He said the healthcare utilization rate (HCUR) in the country dropped to 48 percent from 55 percent as of October 17.
Intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate, he also said, went down to 61 percent from 68 percent.
COVID-19 hospital beds in Metro Manila are only 45 percent occupied, he added.
As for the ICU utilization in NCR, Duque said it is at 59 percent occupancy.
He, however, said hospital bed occupancy rates may be higher in private hospitals.
“Of course, the people really prefer to go to private hospitals. We can’t prevent that. Thus, they have higher occupancy rates,” said Duque.
The OCTA Research, a group of experts which is monitoring the COVID-19 situation in the country, said the country may go back to its pre-surge level by the end of October.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said they are projecting that the number of COVID-19 cases in the NCR, the epicenter of the pandemic in the Philippines, will also see a return to the pre-surge level.
“Based on current trends, the country is tracking at less than 5,000 new cases (7-day average) by end of October with less than 1,000 in the NCR,” said David.
“This means we expect numbers to return to pre-Delta surge level by end of October,” he added.
Currently, David said the seven-day average in the country is down to 6,416 cases.
This is lower than the seven-day average recorded as of October 13, which is 7,181 cases.
In Metro Manila alone, the OCTA said its seven-day average is currently at 1,156 cases.
It is also lower compared to the seven-day average as of October 14, which was 1,847 cases.
The Philippines’ reproduction rate, according to OCTA, is currently at 0.55.
As for Metro Manila, its current reproduction rate is at 0.47, said OCTA.
DELTA SUB-VARIANT
Vergeire said the presence of the Delta variant AY.4.2 sublineage, which has been found in 27 countries, has not been detected in samples sequenced in the country.
She also said information on the sub-variant remains limited.
“As of this moment, experts are still studying the potential impact of the Delta sublineage on the transmissibility and severity of COVID-19,” she said.
Vergeire also said there is nothing unusual when a virus mutates.
“Mutations occur as part of the natural process of virus evolution,” she said.
The DOH issued the statement following the reports on the increase of cases of sublinage AY.4.2 in the United Kingdom. The sub-variant has also been detected in the United States, Canada, Australia, Romania, Poland, Ireland, and Denmark, among others.
Vergeire reiterated that everyone should adhere to minimum public health standards, while also getting fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
The government has administered about 59.83 million doses of vaccines nationwide, with 24.87 million of 32.25 percent of the targeted population fully vaccinated as of October 21.
In Metro Manila, 17.08 million doses have been administered with 81.4 percent of the targeted population or 7.95 million fully vaccinated, said presidential spokesman Harry Roque.
The government was set to receive late Thursday some 1.4 million doses of government-procured vaccines from Pfizer and Sputnik V, and 1.69 million doses of AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines on Friday.
The National Task Force against coronavirus disease (NTF) said the arrival of the vaccines would bring the country closer to its goal of the acquiring 100 million doses of vaccines this month.
NTF consultant Ted Herbosa said the country has received 92.5 million doses as of October 19. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
