THE independent OCTA Research yesterday said daily cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the country are projected to drop below 500 by the end of September as long as the current downward trend is maintained.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said they expect COVID infections to start dipping to under 1,000 by the middle of next month.
“If current trends hold, these projects to less than 1,000 cases per day nationwide by mid-September, and less than 500 per day by end of September,” said David.
He noted that that the number of new COVID cases in the Philippines is already at 2,959, as of August 27.
The number is a decrease of 15 percent compared to the previous week’s case average of 3,487 nationwide.
“The 7-day average was at its highest at 4,071 cases two weeks ago,” said David.
The country’s current reproduction number also decreased to 0.91 as of August 24, from 0.96 last August 17.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has set the ideal reproduction rate at less than 1, saying that having greater than 1 means that the infection will spread exponentially.
The positivity rate in the Philippines also dropped from 16.2 percent to 14.3 percent, as of August 26. The WHO threshold is set at 5 percent for positivity rate.
Last Friday, the Department of Health (DOH) said COVID cases may increase up to 9,000 daily nationwide by the end of September due to the recent opening of academic year 2022-2023 marked by the resumption of face-to-face classes.
“Based on our projection, which were already updated because of the opening of classes, we may increase up to 9,000 cases daily nationwide by the end of September until October,” DOH officer-in-charge Maria Rosario Vergeire has said in a press conference on Friday.
But Vergeire also noted that COVID-19 cases in the country, including the National Capital Region (NCR), are already on a decline.
“The daily decline is being sustained. The national trend and in the NCR are the same,” Vergeire said.