NEW cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the country may further drop to less than 500 per day by December if the present downtrend continues, the independent OCTA Research yesterday said.
OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David noted the country is now averaging less than 1,000 new cases per day, with a reproduction rate of 0.34, while the average daily attack rate (ADAR) is now less than one percent per 100,000 population.
David said the low daily attack rate indicates that the country can already be considered ”low risk” from COVID-19.
“’The current 7-day average as of November 21 to 27 is 954. From November 14 to 20, the seven-day average was 1,346. The one-week growth rate is -29 percent,” he added.
“If the trend continues, new cases are projected to decrease to less than 500 per day by the December holidays,” David said, noting that even the death rate has gone down.
David said the seven-day death average from November 21 to 27 stood at 186.
David also said the seven-day average in the National Capital Region (NCR) during the same period was at 241, which represents 25 percent of the national cases.
“This is 20 percent lower than the 233 deaths per day reported from November 14 to 20.
The high number of deaths relative to the number of new cases is likely due to late reports of deaths,” he added.
Last week, OCTA said COVID-19 cases in the NCR could be at less than 100 come the holidays if the case downtrend is sustained.
“Based on current trends, the 7-day average in the NCR could decrease to less than 200 by the first week of December, and to less than 100 around Christmas,” David had said.
He noted how the November 16 to 22 seven-day average in Metro Manila dropped in numbers not seen in months.
The NCR is the acknowledged epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines.
