LONDON- Britain is on course to enter a technical recession in the second half of this year and faces a big hit to living standards from surging prices, an economic think-tank said on Wednesday.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecast gross domestic product will fall by 0.2 percent in the third quarter and 0.4 percent in the last three months of the year.
That would mark two consecutive quarters of contraction, a commonly used definition of recession.
“Times are difficult for the UK economy,” said NIESR’s deputy director for macroeconomics, Stephen Millard, a former Bank of England economist.
NIESR said the downturn would not count as a recession on its preferred definition – similar to that used by the United States’ National Bureau of Economic Research – which requires a more sustained contraction.
Last week the Bank of England forecast Britain’s economy would shrink by up to 1 percent in the final quarter of this year and also contract over 2023 as a whole – but not that it would shrink for two consecutive quarters. — Reuters
