Thailand’s employment growth weakens

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BANGKOK- Thailand’s employment in the third quarter rose 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the state planning agency said on Monday, the slowest rate in five quarters amid a sluggish economy and weak demand for its exports.

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy grew just 1.5 percent in the July-September period, the slowest pace this year, due to declining exports and government spending.

The third quarter job growth was mainly in the tourism sector and was less than the 1.7 percent increase in the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said in a statement.

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The exports-oriented manufacturing production saw a decrease in employment in the third quarter, it said.

Thailand’s jobless rate was at 0.99 percent in the July-September period versus 1.06 percent in April-June, it said.

Thailand’s definition of unemployment is narrow, however, and counts as jobless those who do not work a single hour in a surveyed week. Analysts say the figures do not catch Thailand’s significant unofficial economy.

In the third quarter of 2023, Thailand had a workforce of 40.1 million, up from 39.7 million in the previous quarter, the planning agency said.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will keep its key interest rate at 2.50 percent on Wednesday, according to all economists polled by Reuters, who said a year-long tightening cycle was over.

Consumer prices fell 0.3 percent in October, the first time they have dropped in more than two years, putting inflation well below the central bank’s 1-3 percent target range.

Meanwhile, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a slower-than-expected 1.5 percent in the third quarter, supporting the view the BOT will draw a line under its rate hiking campaign at the Nov. 29 meeting to help economic growth.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said on Thursday the economy was in “crisis” with fewer foreign arrivals than targeted.

All 28 economists in the Nov. 20-24 Reuters poll expected the BOT to keep its benchmark one-day repurchase rate at 2.50 percent on Wednesday.

Median forecasts showed no change to interest rates until at least July 2025.

“The policy rate is currently at a level the BOT considers neutral and recent economic data do not call for further tightening. Overall, we think the BOT will embark on a prolonged pause,” wrote Krystal Tan, economist at ANZ.

“For a further rate hike to materialize, we would need to see growth and inflation come in stronger than what the BOT currently expects. As things stand, we think the bar is high.”-Reuters

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