BENGALURU- Thailand’s economy likely grew 2.5 percent in the final quarter of 2023 from a year earlier, driven by a rise in tourist arrivals and private consumption, but high household debt and China’s slowdown are clouding the outlook for this year, a Reuters poll found.
On an annual basis, the forecast for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy for the October-December period would mark a pick-up from the prior quarter’s 1.5 percent , the median forecast in a Feb. 8-14 Reuters poll of 21 economists showed.
However, on a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to have expanded 0.1 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis, a sharp slowdown from 0.8 percent in the previous quarter and highlighting risks to growth in the tourism-driven economy.
Forecasts ranged from -1.1 percent to 1.5 percent . The data will be released on Feb. 19.
“Monthly tourism data suggest the sector’s recovery picked up pace in November and December, which traditionally mark the beginning of the high season. Total arrivals climbed to 83 percent of pre-COVID levels,” said Alexandra Hermann, lead economist at Oxford Economics.
“Private consumption drove growth throughout 2023, with the monthly consumption index suggesting demand continued to be robust in Q4.”
