MANCHESTER, New Hampshire. — Donald Trump, the former president, won his second straight nominating contest over challenger Nikki Haley, the only other Republican left in the race, by besting her in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
Haley, who served as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, was attempting to keep the margin close to argue she has a viable path forward.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden easily won the Democratic primary, even though he wasn’t officially on the ballot.
Here are takeaways from the New Hampshire primary:
A prickly path
It was often said in New Hampshire that Haley needed to keep Trump’s vote share below 50% to argue that more Republicans want Trump to go away than win.
But she failed to do that on Tuesday, leaving her as the leader of a no-Trump coalition that is likely not large enough to get her where she wants to be. With votes still being counted, Trump was on track to eclipse her by double-digits.
Before voters headed to the polls, Haley’s campaign argued a path lay ahead for her even if she didn’t win New Hampshire. Campaign manager Betsy Ankney noted that multiple states on the calendar will have setups similar to New Hampshire, where independents can crash the party and vote.
South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on Feb. 24, allows any voter who doesn’t first cast a ballot in the Democratic primary on Feb. 3 to vote. Michigan, which follows, has an open primary and a closed convention.
Then comes Super Tuesday on March 5, when 874 delegates are up for grabs from 15 states and one US territory. Ankney said roughly two-thirds of those are in states with open or semi-open primaries.
She named Virginia, Massachusetts, Texas and North Carolina among states where Haley could perform well with independent or moderate voters whom the campaign views as persuadable.
Still, all of this could soon become academic. If Trump blows Haley out in her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor, she will face mounting pressure to quit.
Until then, Haley has a month to campaign, raise money and position herself as the only anti-Trump Republican left.
Red flags
Trump’s victory wasn’t nearly as sweeping as his Iowa win last week, but it was never expected to be in a state with an electorate packed with moderate Republicans and independents.
In fact, the town-by-town map showed Trump fell to Haley in New Hampshire in many of the same areas where he lost to Biden in 2020.
That should concern the Trump campaign because Biden beat Trump in the state by about seven percentage points, a margin that made it hard for even Trump to cry fraud.
According to exit polls by Edison Research, independents flocked to Haley. She won 60% of them, and she dominated among college graduates 56% to 41%.
Perhaps the biggest warning light of all was on abortion. The issue did not play in the primary between Trump and Haley, but it will be central to a matchup with Biden.
Among voters who considered the issue their top priority, Haley won 64% to 30% even though she is ostensibly more conservative on the issue than Trump.
Haley, however, has signaled that she would approach the issue pragmatically as president. (Trump otherwise dominated among self-identified religious voters.) — Reuters