TAIPEI- Taiwan’s trade-dependent economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, putting in its worst performance in 13 years, hit by a drop in exports on slowing global tech demand and COVID-related chaos in its largest market China.
For the October-December period, annual gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.86 percent from the same period a year earlier, compared with 4.01 percent growth for the previous quarter, preliminary data from the statistics agency showed on Wednesday.
That was worse than an increase of 1.3 percent forecast in a Reuters poll, and the worst quarterly performance since the economy contracted 1.13 percent in the third quarter of 2009, when the world was dealing with a financial crisis.
Compared with the previous quarter, Taiwan’s economy contracted 4.24 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
“External demand has weakened significantly,” the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics said, pointing to global inflation and interest rate rises suppressing demand and “the deterioration of the pandemic in mainland China interfering with consumption and production activities”.
For all of 2022, the economy expanded a preliminary 2.43 percent, compared to 6.53 percent logged for 2021. That was slightly slower than last year’s 3 percent growth recorded in China, which was hit hard by stringent COVID curbs and a property market slump.
As a key hub in the global technology supply chain for giants such as Apple Inc, Taiwan’s economy had outperformed many regional peers during the pandemic as it benefited from robust demand for tech exports as more people turned to working and studying from home.
But global economic woes driven by soaring inflation and the impact of the war in Ukraine, as well as China’s pandemic situation, has impacted demand for made-in-Taiwan goods.
Taiwan will release revised GDP figures at a later date, yet to be set, including full-year growth forecasts for 2023. In November, the statistics agency revised down its full year 2023 outlook to 2.75 percent from a previous forecast of 3.05 percent.
Taiwan’s exports fell for a fourth straight month in December due to the worsening state of the global economy, as inflation and rising interest rates weighed on demand, and benefits from China’s relaxation of its COVID controls had still to emerge.
Exports dropped 12.1 percent by value last month from a year earlier to $35.75 billion, the lowest in 20 months, the Ministry of Finance said on Saturday.
That followed a 13.1 percent drop in November, and was slightly better than Reuters poll forecast for a 13.3 percent contraction.
For December, the ministry said global demand was slowing gradually, due to inflationary pressures and interest rate rises in major economies, as well as disruptions to factory production in China amid a spike of COVID-19 cases after Beijing dismantled its zero-COVID regime.
The ministry saw Taiwan’s exports continuing to decline in the first quarter as it expected the global economy to “slow significantly”, with major uncertainties posed by both the war in Ukraine and the spread of COVID-19 in China.
Taiwan’s total exports of electronics components in December fell 1.4 percent to $16.04 billion, with semiconductor exports up 0.8 percent from a year earlier. — Reuters
