Sea drone warfare has arrived; the US is floundering

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THE US Navy’s efforts to build a fleet of unmanned vessels are faltering because the Pentagon remains wedded to big shipbuilding projects, according to some officials and company executives, exposing a weakness as sea drones reshape naval warfare.

The lethal effectiveness of sea drones has been demonstrated in the Black Sea where Ukraine has deployed remote-controlled speed boats packed with explosives to sink Russian frigates and minesweepers since late 2022.

Yemeni-backed Houthi rebels have employed similar vessels against commercial shipping in the Red Sea in recent months, albeit without success.

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These tactics have caught the attention of the Pentagon, which is incorporating lessons from Ukraine and the Red Sea into its plans to counter China’s rising naval power in the Pacific, Pentagon Spokesman Eric Pahon told Reuters.

In a signal of the Pentagon’s intent, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks announced an initiative in August – named Replicator – to deploy hundreds of small, relatively cheap air and sea drones within the next 18-24 months to match China’s growing military threat.

This public show of commitment masks years of hesitation by the US Navy to build a fleet of unmanned vessels despite repeated warnings this was the future of maritime warfare, according to interviews with a dozen people with direct knowledge of the US sea drone plans, including Navy officers, Pentagon officials, and sea drone company executives.

Two Navy sources and three executives at sea drone manufacturers said the biggest impediment to progress has been a Department of Defense (DoD) budget process that prioritizes big ships and submarines built by legacy defense contractors.

“At some point, you hit the D.C. problem,” said Philipp Stratmann, CEO at Ocean Power Technologies (OPT), a New Jersey-based firm that supplies the US Navy with the WAM-V, an autonomous surface drone.

“You hit the fact that there is a military-industrial complex that has the best lobbyists and knows exactly how the money flows and contracting works in the DOD.”

A Navy spokesperson said it “acquires capabilities based on fleet demand signals,” referring to the messages headquarters receive from commanders at sea.

The Navy has a budget of $172 million this year for small and medium-sized underwater sea drones, falling to $101.8 million in 2025, the spokesperson said. That’s a tiny fraction of the $63 billion Navy procurement budget proposed by President Joe Biden’s administration for 2025.

Military sea drones can range from missile-armed speed boats to mine-hunting miniature submarines and solar-powered sailboats equipped with high-definition spy cameras, underwater sensors and loudspeakers used to holler warnings at enemy ships.

But when the Navy has deployed sea drones on reconnaissance missions in recent years, it hasn’t always had the fleet expertise to use them, the two Navy sources said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

There aren’t enough Navy sailors trained to pilot drones or to analyze vast swathes of data sent back from the craft’s cameras and sensors, the sources said.

The spokesperson said the Navy was in the process of improving its data collection and analysis from sensors.

Pentagon spokesman Pahon said the DoD has been “laser-focused on accelerating innovation over the last three years,” including the use of sea drones.

Acknowledging budget challenges, Pahon said the Pentagon was using innovative ways to cross “the valley of death,” a term used to describe the torturous approval process new inventions travel through to be purchased in large quantities.

Replicator

One example Pahon cited was the Replicator program: the short-term, $500 million-a-year project is designed to cut through bureaucracy and fast-track the deployment of thousands of cheap aerial and sea drones.

These drones will be used to match China’s rapidly-growing air and naval power in the Asia-Pacific region, the Pentagon’s Hicks said at the project’s launch in August. She said Replicator is being funded mainly by reallocating funds from the existing Pentagon budget.

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As part of the initiative, the Pentagon in January issued a solicitation for private companies to deliver small sea drones to the Navy, demanding a production capacity of 120 vessels per year, with deployment beginning in April 2025.

Duane Fotheringham, president of unmanned systems at Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) HII.N, the largest US military shipbuilder, acknowledged the Pentagon and Navy had shown their “intent” to accelerate the deployment of sea drones but he said the industry wanted to see long-term funding in the defense budget.

“We hear the demand signal … but we all have to work together very closely to understand what that demand is and when it will be available,” Fotheringham told Reuters.

At a cost ranging between $1 million and $3 million apiece, according to Navy and defense contractor sources, drones offer a relatively cheap and fast way to expand the Navy’s fleet, especially as several large traditional shipbuilding projects – like a new class of frigate warships – are running years behind schedule.

The US is testing using robot ships in active combat scenarios. But their more immediate use is for missions that are too costly and numerous for manned naval fleets.

 

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