By Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang and Liangping Gao
BEIJING- As the annual meeting of China’s parliament approaches next month, its leaders are facing the greatest pressure in almost a decade to take bold policy decisions that safeguard the economy’s long-term growth potential.
The start of the year saw Chinese stocks tumbling to five-year lows on growth concerns and deflation deepening to levels unseen since the global financial crisis, prompting comparisons with the 2015 turmoil that forced policymakers into action.
“The last time the Chinese leadership faced this kind of pressure was in 2015,” said Tommy Wu, a senior China economist at Commerzbank, who added, “2024 is a crucial year for China to stabilize the economy.
“However, the current situation is a lot more complicated.”
China overcame the 2015 crisis by devaluing the yuan and tightening its capital account to prevent outflows, while pouring resources into property and infrastructure, and slashing interest rates by more than 100 basis points.
But that policy ammunition is now spent, bent or broken, limiting its options to fix a stuttering economy and find a way out of what threatens to become a self-feeding downward spiral in consumer and investor confidence and economic growth.
The property market has been in free fall since 2021 because of a series of defaults among developers after years of overleveraged, bad investments. Infrastructure spending is difficult to sustain because of high levels of local government debt.
Further monetary policy easing risks a run on yuan assets due to a yawning interest rate gap with other economies and could exacerbate deflationary pressures as cheap credit flows into China’s industrial complex, ridden with overcapacity.
As China’s rubber stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), begins its annual meeting on March 5, there has been no indication of major stimulus or a grand reform plan in the making.
“It is widely underappreciated how constrained Beijing is at this point, in terms of options to stimulate the economy via fiscal policy, or through more rapid credit growth from banks,” said Logan Wright, a partner at Rhodium Group.
“There will be no policy bazookas unveiled at the NPC, in part because China has no good options to maintain growth via its traditional channels.”
Fleeing investors have expressed frustration that authorities have not unveiled a clear roadmap to fixing structural issues laid bare last year when the Chinese economy failed to replicate the explosive recovery experienced by other economies after COVID-19.
Markets want clear, long-term plans for cleaning up the property sector, restructuring municipal debt, and switching to a more sustainable growth model that relies less on debt-fueled investment excesses and more on household consumption.