NARA, Japan. — After a strong showing in an election overshadowed by the killing of former premier Shinzo Abe, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may have fresh momentum to hike defense spending on a scale beyond the grasp of his slain mentor.
In doing so, Kishida, a moderate from Hiroshima who wants nuclear weapons banned, would expand on Abe’s hawkish legacy and ensure support from Liberal Democratic Party hardliners loyal to Abe.
The LDP’s ruling coalition increased its majority in parliament’s upper house two days after Abe, the nation’s longest-serving premier and a party power broker, was gunned down during a campaign speech in the western city of Nara.
The crime stunned a nation in which gun violence is rare, setting off a wave of mourning and assessments of Abe’s legacy. His influence was both far-reaching and polarizing, especially on defense. The funeral was set for Tuesday.
Kishida’s promise to “substantially” boost defense spending took on new significance after the killing. Seen by some voters as too hawkish, the former premier had never been able to boost defense spending to the 2% of GDP his party has set as a goal.
The next defense budget could be as much as 6 trillion yen ($45 billion), or an increase of 11% from last year, one LDP lawmaker who had been close to Abe and had knowledge of internal defense discussions told Reuters, on condition of anonymity.
“If he can achieve that, the conservatives within the party will flock to Kishida and he will have a long-term administration, no doubt about it,” the lawmaker added.
“Kishida can secure his throne by realizing Abe’s goals.”
That conservative support is critical, since Kishida has pursued economic policies that diverge from the neo-liberalism Abe favored. Control of the factious LDP would allow Kishida three years to execute his program before another election.
Japanese voters, fearing a slide into militarism, have traditionally been wary of big increases in defense spending, but many now worry that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may embolden China to attack neighboring Taiwan.
Annual percentage increases of about 10%, the size mentioned by the LDP lawmaker, would double military spending to 2% of GDP by the end of the decade and make Japan the world’s third-biggest military spender behind the United States and China.
Beijing now spends more than four times as much as Japan on defense, a ranking of 2021 global defense budgets by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows. — Reuters
