BENGALURU- Indonesia’s economy likely accelerated last quarter, buoyed by strong exports and private consumption, but a slowdown in China and the threat of a global recession pose significant risks in coming months, a Reuters poll found.
With rising global commodity prices, the resource-rich country has been enjoying an export boom. Its trade surplus in 2022’s first half was the highest on record at $24.89 billion, more than double that of the same period in 2021.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy grew 5.17 percent in the April-June period compared with the same three months a year earlier, the median forecast of 22 economists polled July 25-Aug. 2 showed.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy was predicted to have risen 3.44 percent last quarter from the previous three-month period, which saw a contraction of 0.96 percent, according to a smaller sample of 10 economists.
“Daily new (coronavirus) cases remained under control and domestic activity continued to improve in the June 22 quarter. The quarter also had Ramadan and we expect robust sequential momentum for private consumption,” wrote Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC.
“Windfall tax revenue from high commodity prices continued to support government spending. However, almost a month-long palm oil export ban in May will likely cause exports growth to contract sequentially.”
A separate Reuters poll found GDP growth would be 5.1 percent this year, within Bank Indonesia’s estimate of 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent, and moderate only slightly to 5.0 percent in 2023.
