BEIJING. — China’s public health governance is expected to come under acute pressure in coming weeks as the biggest wave of COVID-19 cases since the 2020 Wuhan outbreak stretches medical resources, tests the country’s ability to contain infections and strains the economy.
In the past 10 weeks, China has reported more new local symptomatic cases – more than 14,000 – than in all of 2021 amid the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, fueling fears of hard lockdowns of cities and economic instability.
Some parts of China are already feeling the crunch as they scramble to test local populations and quarantine the infected under China’s strict COVID-19 playbook, despite relatively low caseloads by global standards.
In the northeastern province of Jilin, the hardest-hit region in the current outbreak, affected cities are racing to prepare temporary hospitals. A local official said on Tuesday the province’s epidemic prevention supplies will run dry in two to three days.
“The next two weeks are key to determining whether existing policies can really be effective in curbing infection growth or even reaching completely zero cases in one city as we saw last year,” said Chen Zhengmin, professor of epidemiology at the University of Oxford.
China has stood firmly by its “dynamic” zero-COVID policy – rigorously identifying infections and blocking them as they emerge but not insisting on zero infections – for both public health and political reasons.
Although China has a vaccination rate of nearly 90%, Chinese experts said not enough elderly people have received boosters, risking deaths and severe cases. It is also unclear how well Chinese vaccines reduce the risk of developing the disease caused by the Omicron variant.
China’s leadership has staked much on its COVID-19 battle, and would be loath to alter course in a sensitive year when President Xi Jinping is set to secure a third term.
“Preventing and controlling epidemics has become more difficult,” National Health Commission spokesperson Mi Feng said on Tuesday. But he stressed “it has been proved in practice” that China’s current virus measures are still effective against Omicron.
The country is also struggling to balance pandemic measures with an economic recovery. Citi analysts estimate the latest wave will shave 0.5-0.8 percentage point from first-quarter GDP growth.
China should consider less disruptive or resource-consuming measures, including allowing asymptomatic infections to quarantine at home, though such a move is unlikely to happen soon, some experts say.
