BEIJING- China’s economy is expected to have slowed in the first quarter as a protracted property downturn and weak private-sector confidence weigh on demand, maintaining pressures on policymakers to unveil more stimulus measures.
Data on Tuesday is forecast to show gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.6 percent in January-March from a year earlier, slowing from 5.2 percent in the previous three months and hitting the weakest since the first quarter of 2023, according to a Reuters poll.
The world’s second-largest economy has struggled to mount a strong and sustainable a post-COVID bounce, burdened by a protracted property downturn, mounting local government debts and weak private-sector spending.
The government has set a target of around 5 percent for this year, which has been described by most analysts as ambitious, partly because last year’s growth rate of 5.2 percent was likely flattered by a comparison with a COVID-hit 2022.
The economy was off to a solid start this year, fanning optimism among some analysts for an improved 2024 outcome, but March data on exports, consumer inflation and bank lending showed that momentum could falter again and policymakers may need to launch more stimulus to spur demand.
“I think Q1 GDP growth could be slightly stronger than expected – it may be close to 5 percent ,” said Zong Liang, chief of research at state-owned Bank of China.
“The growth target is achievable as we still have more policy space.”
On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to expand 1.4 percent in the first quarter, quickening from 1.0 percent in October-December, the poll showed.
GDP data is due today. Separate data on March activity is expected to show both industrial output and retail sales slowing.
