DUBAI — Gulf Arab states are unlikely to be deterred from dialogue to improve ties with Iran after a hard-line judge won the presidency but their talks with Tehran might become tougher, analysts said.
Prospects for better relations between Muslim Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab monarchies could ultimately hinge on progress to revive Tehran’s 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, they said, after Ebrahim Raisi won Friday’s election.
The Iranian judge and cleric, who is subject to US sanctions, takes office in August, while nuclear talks in Vienna under outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, a more pragmatic cleric, are ongoing.
Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime regional foes, began direct talks in April to contain tensions at the same time as global powers have been embroiled in nuclear negotiations.
“Iran has now sent a clear message that they are tilting to a more radical, more conservative position,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE political analyst, adding that Raisi’s election might make improving Gulf ties a tougher challenge.
“Nevertheless, Iran is not in a position to become more radical … because the region is becoming very difficult and very dangerous,” he added.
The United Arab Emirates, whose commercial hub Dubai has been a trade gateway for Iran, and Oman, which has often played a regional mediation role, were swift to congratulate Raisi.
Saudi Arabia has yet to comment.
Raisi, an implacable critic of the West and an ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate power in Iran, has voiced support for continuing the nuclear negotiations.
“If the Vienna talks succeed and there is a better situation with America, then (with) hardliners in power, who are close to the supreme leader, the situation may improve,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of Gulf Research Center.
A revived nuclear deal and the lifting of US sanctions on the Islamic Republic would boost Raisi, easing Iran’s economic crisis and offering leverage in Gulf talks, said Jean-Marc Rickli, an analyst at Geneva Center for Security Policy.
Neither Iran nor Gulf Arabs want a return to the kind of tensions seen in 2019 that spiraled after the US killing, under former US President Donald Trump, of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. Gulf states blamed Iran or its proxies for a spate of attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil plants.
A perception that Washington was now disengaging militarily from the area under US President Joe Biden has prompted a more pragmatic Gulf approach, analysts said.
Nevertheless, Biden has demanded Iran rein in its missile program and end its support for proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi movement in Yemen, demands that have strong support from Gulf Arab nations.
