THE average airfare in Asia-Pacific is expected to increase by 54 percent compared to last year’s level if social distancing – which entails the elimination of the middle seat in the aircraft – is observed, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA said calls for social distancing measures on aircraft would fundamentally shift the economics of aviation by slashing the maximum load factor to 62 percent.
That is well below the average industry breakeven load factor of 77 percent.
With fewer seats to sell, unit costs would rise sharply.
Compared to 2019, air fares would need to go up dramatically–between 43 percent and 54 percent depending on the region–just to cover costs, according to IATA.
In Asia Pacific, the average fare with social distancing stood $217 higher by 54 percent as compared $141 average fare last year.
“Airlines are fighting for their survival. Eliminating the middle seat will raise costs. If that can be offset with higher fares, the era of affordable travel will come to an end. On the other hand, if airlines can’t recoup the costs in higher fares, airlines will go bust. Neither is a good option when the world will need strong connectivity to help kick-start the recovery from COVID-19’s economic devastation,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA director-general and chief executive officer.
IATA said evidence suggests the risk of transmission on board aircraft is low. Mask-wearing by passengers and crew will reduce the already low risk, while avoiding the dramatic cost increases to air travel that onboard social distancing measures would bring.
“The safety of passengers and crew is paramount. The aviation industry is working with governments to restart flying when this can be done safely. Evidence suggests that the risk of transmission on board aircraft is low. And we will take measures–such as the wearing of face coverings by passengers and masks by crew–to add extra layers of protection. We must arrive at a solution that gives passengers the confidence to fly and keeps the cost of flying affordable. One without the other will have no lasting benefit,” said de Juniac.
IATA recommended mandatory face coverings for passengers and masks for crew as one of several actions to reduce the already low risk of contracting the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on board the aircraft.
In addition to face coverings, these layers of temporary biosecurity measures being proposed include: temperature screening of passengers, airport workers and travellers, boarding and deplaning processes that reduce contact with other passengers or crew, limiting movement within the cabin during flight, more frequent and deeper cabin cleaning; and simplified catering procedures that lower crew movement and interaction with passengers.
When proven and available at scale, testing for COVID-19 or immunity passports could also be included as temporary biosecurity measures.
IATA does not recommend restricting the use of the middle seat to create social distancing while onboard aircraft.
It said even if mandated, keeping the middle seat open will not achieve the recommended separation for social distancing to be effective. Most authorities recommend one to two-meter distance between two passengers while the average seat width is less than 50 centimeters.
“The cabin environment naturally makes transmission of viruses difficult for a variety of reasons. That helps explain why we have seen little occurrence of onboard transmission. In the immediate term, our aim is to make the cabin environment even safer with effective measures so that passengers and crew can return to travel with confidence. Screening, face coverings and masks are among the many layers of measures that we are recommending. Leaving the middle seat empty, however, is not,” said de Juniac.
Locally, Carmelo Arcilla Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) executive director said the government is finalizing the guidelines on how the social distancing measures will be implemented inside the aircraft.
Commercial operations of Philippine carriers are expected to resume once the enhanced community quarantine is lifted hopefully by May 16.
