AN El Niño Alert was issued yesterday by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administrative (PAGASA) as it said hotter days can be expected throughout the country in the coming months.
“Recent conditions and model forecasts indicate that El Niño may emerge in the coming season (June-July-August) at 80 percent probability and may persist until the first quarter of 2024,” PAGASA administrator Vicente Malano said in a statement.
“With this development, the PAGASA El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño Alert,” Malano also said.
He explained that “when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next two months at a probability of 70 percent or more, an El Niño Alert is issued.”
The alert was raised from “El Niño Watch,” which was declared on March 23.
Weather bureaus declare an El Niño Watch when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months and the probability is 55 percent or more.
El Niño is characterized by “unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.” It increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall which, Malano said, may lead to dry spells and droughts in some parts of the country.
“However, over the western part of the country, above-normal rainfall
conditions during the southwest monsoon season (Habagat) may also be expected,” he added.
Manalo said PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the weather phenomenon.
“All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño,” said Malano.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) formed a team last week to prepare for the possible effects of El Niño on instructions of President Marcos Jr.
The team is led by the Department of Interior and Local Government, with the Department of Agriculture, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Department of Energy, Department of Health, Department of Science and Technology, Office of Civil Defense, National Economic and Development Authority, National Irrigation Administration and the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System as members.
