PAGASA says El Niño to peak by yearend
AS the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday projected a 55 to 87 percent probability of a “weak to moderate” El Niño phenomenon in the country this year, President Marcos Jr. directed all concerned government agencies to conserve water and energy in anticipation of and in preparation for the dry spell.
The President likewise directed the Department of Health (DOH) to anticipate and prepare for possible diseases and illnesses that may occur when the phenomenon hits its peak towards the end of the year up until the first month of 2024.
Presidential briefer Daphne Oseña-Paez said Marcos tasked select government agencies to come up with a campaign to generate public awareness to conserve water and energy, among others, to cushion the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno, who is the administrator of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD), said the President was very specific that the information campaign, which would also cover public schools, should encourage the people to prepare for the phenomenon, not scare or cause public panic.
Nepomuceno also said the President directed different government agencies to come up with a whole-of-government strategy to address the looming dry spell.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has likewise been instructed to form an El Niño team to effectively respond to the crisis, should one occur, and put up a protocol-based and scientific long-term processes that could be adopted by the country.
PAGASA deputy administrator Esperanza Cayanan, in a briefing after the sectoral meeting with the President in Malacañang yesterday, said that based on their monitoring, the probability of an El Niño has increased from 55 percent to 80 percent in June, July, August, and September, and around 87 percent in November and December 2023, and January 2024.
Cayanan said PAGASA will issue an El Niño Alert next month if the “chances of El Niño developing within the next two months” reaches a 70 to 75 percent probability.
She said that based on latest data and recent conditions, most models indicate that the forthcoming El Niño will be “weak to moderate,” which means that there will be above normal temperature and less rainfall, or even a dry spell. A moderate El Niño hit the country in 2009 and 2010.
The phenomenon, she added, could intensify in the last quarter of the year or early next year.
But Cayanan warned that before the onset of El Niño, it is possible that extreme weather conditions, like the heavy rains of “Ondoy” that caused massive flooding in 2009, may also happen this year.
“From previous experience po natin, puwede po tayong maka-experience ng extreme rainfall event kagaya po ng, isang example, noong Ondoy noong 2009 wherein nagkaroon po kasi tayo ng El Niño 2009, 2010 (From our previous experience, we can experience extreme rainfall event, similar to what happened during Ondoy in 2009, when we also had El Niño in 2009, 2010),” she said.
“Bago natin naramdaman iyong kakulangan sa tubig, naka-experience po tayo ng extreme events (But before we experienced the shortage in water, we experienced extreme events),” she added.
RAINS
Cayanan said that prior to the El Niño, the country would still experience the rainy season between late May to September, with the peak happening between July to September during the southwest monsoon months, with two to three tropical cyclones projected during these months.
She said the concentration of the rains will be in the western region of the country, which could mean that some places in these areas can experience flooding while others will start experiencing below normal rainfall.
The sectoral meeting was attended by the chiefs of the Department of National Defense (DND), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Department of Science and Technology (DOST), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Department of Agriculture (DA), Department of Health (DOH), National Irrigation Administration (NIA), National Water Resources Board (NWRB), and the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage Systems (MWSS).
