THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday reported that the El Niño phenomenon is weakening and raised a La Niña Watch alert.
La Niña is a climate pattern that characterizes above-average rains while El Niño is a phenomenon that increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions that may lead to dry spells and droughts.
“El Niño across the tropical Pacific Ocean shows signs of weakening and is expected to persist until the March-April-May 2024 season,” PAGASA said in an advisory.
The agency said the majority of climate models suggest a transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) between April, May and June with a 79 percent chance.
“However, there is a likelihood for La Niña to develop (55% chance) during the June-July-August 2024 season. With this development, the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to La Niña Watch,” PAGASA said.
“PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the ongoing El Niño, its effect on the local climate, and the possibility of La Niña,” the agency added.
The warm and dry season will start this month and the weather systems that may affect the country during the period are the northeast monsoon, high-pressure areas, localized thunderstorms, low-pressure areas, easterlies, and zero to one tropical cyclone.
“The rainfall forecast for March shows that most parts of the country will likely experience way below to below-normal rainfall conditions and the probability is high,” the advisory also said.
It said 30 provinces are forecast to experience drought conditions this month, adding 22 provinces may experience dry spells and 15 others may experience dry conditions.
“Generally, below-average to warmer-than-average surface air temperatures are expected throughout the country this month,” PAGASA added.
The forecast temperature ranges from 20.0ºC to 36.0ºC in Metro Manila; 12.0ºC to 28.0ºC in the mountainous areas of Luzon; 17.0ºC to 37.0ºC for the rest of Luzon; 20.0ºC to 36.5ºC in the Visayas; 14.0ºC to 35.0ºC over the mountainous areas of Mindanao and 18.0ºC to 37.5ºC over the rest of Mindanao.
PAGASA administrator Nathaniel Servado said: “El Niño will persist in March, April and May though it’s weakening. We’re expecting a transition to ENSO neutral in June, July or August.
“This is consistent with the statement released by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) that while El Niño is weakening, we are still going to feel its effects in the coming months,” added Servando.
Servando said they released the La Niña Watch alert due to the high possibility of it occurring. “But the effect of La Nina is expected in the later part of this year,” he said.
Ana Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said El Niño started to weaken this month “but then its possible impact will still be experienced in March, April and May.”
Solis said the La Nina Watch alert was issued “because there is (a) probability of more than 55 percent (of it occurring) in the next six months.”
“That is why while we are still feeling the impact of El Nino, we need to issue La Nina Watch…When we issued La Nina Watch, it’s not guaranteed it will occur but there is a 55 percent probability,” she said.