WHILE there is now a 62 percent chance that the country will experience the La Niña phenomenon by June this year, the effects of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, such as drought, would continue to be felt until August, Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. said yesterday.
El Niño is described as an abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below normal rainfall.
Solidum, in a briefing after the sectoral meeting in Malacañang on the El Niño situation and outlook for La Niña, cited projections of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) that the impacts of El Niño will continue to be felt throughout the country.
He said that for April, the PAGASA has said that 48 provinces will be affected by drought and 24 provinces will be under a dry spell.
The numbers will increase to 54 provinces affected by drought and 10 provinces affected by dry spell in May.
“The drought-affected provinces will continue to persist based on DOST-PAGASA’s outlook — 25 (provinces) by June, 23 (provinces) by July, and 10 (provinces) by August,’’ Solidum said.
As of March 24, he said, 37 provinces are experiencing drought, 17 provinces under a dry spell, and 13 provinces with dry conditions.
Solidum said that as El Niño transitions to neutral between April to June, there is a 62 percent probability of La Niña occurring between June to August — up from the 55 percent projection made in early March.
La Niña is described as having above-normal rainfall conditions.
Solidum said that historically, the pre-developing La Niña period brings below normal rainfall, so there will likely be a slight delay in the onset of the rainy season.
‘’Hence, we need to continue doing the operations for El Niño preparedness but also keeping in mind that we need to prepare for La Niña in the second half of the year,’’ he said.
DOST-PAGASA’s Analiza Solis said that with the continuing El Niño and expected La Niña, they are projecting around 13 to 16 typhoons this year, which is below the average 19 to 20 typhoons that hit the country every year.
As this developed, President Marcos Jr. ordered the activation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation Online Platform (ENOP), a centralized repository of data created by the DOST for understanding, monitoring and addressing the impacts of El Niño and La Niña.
‘’The public can actually look at the platform to know more about these different sectors, what the government agencies are doing. But they can also look at information materials that can help them prepare for El Niño and later on, La Niña and to make sure that they contribute to the preparedness of their communities for these hazards,’’ Solidum said.
He said the public can also contribute by reporting, through the website, their personal observations.
He said the website will show the forecast and the actual El Niño affected areas.
DAMS
In the same briefing, National Irrigation Administration (NIA) Administrator Eduardo Eddie Guillen said the President wants more “high dams” put up throughout the country as part of the long-term solutions for water needs, especially for irrigation, aquaculture and supply; for power generation, and for flood control, among others.
Guillen said existing high dams in the country, among them the Pantabangan Dam, are about 100 meters high, are limited, and already about 50 years old.
Asked how many dams can be completed by the end of the term of the President in 2028, Guillen estimated around 20 “medium dams” and three to five high dams.
He said at present, the NIA is planning to build the Tumauini Dam in Isabela, and a dam each in Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur.
He said there are also ongoing dam projects in the Visayas, such as the Jalaur Dam, and another one near the Panay River Basin, as well as in Mindanao, such as the Antung Dam located near the Pulangi River, and the Malmar and Malmar II dams in Lower Malitubog.
