Drop in NCR cases still not enough to lower alert level

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CORONAVIRUS disease cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) are on a decline, but it is still too early to say if the downtrend is enough to lower the current Alert Level 4 imposed over the region.

Dr. Alethea de Guzman, director of the Epidemiology Bureau of the Department of Health,
Department of Health-Epidemiology Bureau director Alethea de Guzman yesterday said the numbers in Metro Manila are going down.

De Guzman said the growth rate of the virus went down last week to negative 13, a big drop compared to 32 percent from five to six weeks ago.

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She added the average daily attack rate in Metro Manila NCR has also gone down to 33.98 from September 13 to 26, from 39.17 during the period August 30 to September 12.

The average daily reported cases are also at a weekly decline to 4,347 during the period September 20 to 26, from 5,145 cases (September 13 to 19); 5,934 cases (September 6 to 12); and 5,006 cases (August 30 to September 5).

Presidential spokesman Harry Roque said data from the DOH also showed that the reproduction number (R naught) dropped to 0.8555 on September 13 from 1.3648 percent on August 12.

De Guzman said the NCR is now under the moderate-risk case classification in terms of its two-week growth rate, and at moderate risk level in terms of hospital bed occupancy at 63.04 percent.

Metro Manila, however, remains at the high-risk level in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) utilization at 76.22 percent.

De Guzman and Roque said that amid the improved COVID-19 situation in Metro Manila, the numbers still need to improve so its alert level can go down one level.

De Guzman said the recommendations for the new classification will be made before October 1.

“If the current data of NCR will be the basis, it is possible that it will remain at Alert Level 4 but… our current metrics numbers are constantly studied and it is important to get right and accurate data to be able to give the right recommendations),” she said.

Metropolitan Manual development Authority (MMDA) chairman Benjamin Abalos Jr. has said that Metro mayors are hoping that the alert level in the NCR will be lowered to level 3 to allow more businesses to resume operations.

Also, De Guzman said the entire country is still at the moderate risk classification, while the Cordillera Administrative Region, Caraga, Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and Soccsksargen are at high risk in terms of their average daily attack rates.

In moderate risk level, on the other hand, are Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

Benguet Gov. Melchor Diclas yesterday said the province is adopting stricter measures to contain the surge of COVID-19 cases that has overwhelmed their healthcare system.

“Before, we’re averaging only 10 to 20 a day. Now, there was a time we had 400 plus cases (in one day),” said Diclas, adding the surge started following the entry of the Delta variant in the country.

“We’re examining the travelers, we’re limiting travels. As much as possible, we only allow essential travels,” Diclas told the Laging Handa press briefing, adding that the regional Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases has also recommended the suspension of tourism, tourism-related activities, and mass gatherings in the province.

Diclas said they are also requiring people who are buying vegetables from the province to undergo RT-PCR tests before they are allowed to enter the borders.

He said the province’s two major hospitals – the Benguet General Hospital and the Baguio City General Hospital – are already full of COVID-19 patients.

Also, Diclas said 18 healthcare workers from the Benguet General Hospital have tested positive of the virus.

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The province has recorded a total 15,804 cases, including 247 cases reported on Sunday.

The total cases are broken down into 3,184 active cases, 12,155 recoveries and 465 deaths. — With Victor Reyes and Christian Oineza

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