DOH: 60% hike in PH daily COVID cases in past week
THE number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) is projected to begin dropping in one to two weeks right after the cases peak, according to the independent group OCTA Research.
“We are hoping that the peak will come within the next one to two weeks. Then, from there, we will likely see the downward trend already. But these are mere projections. They can still change,” OCTA fellow Guido David said in a briefing.
“The numbers are already stable in a sense that the reproduction number and growth rates are no longer on the rise. That’s why we are expecting that, in one to two weeks, cases may already start going down, especially in the NCR,” he added.
The OCTA projection came as the Department of Health said the number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily in the past seven days (June 27 to July 3) passed the 1,000 mark, based on the report of the Department of Health.
In its COVID-19 case bulletin, the DOH said the average of 1,057 cases daily recorded in the past week was “60 percent higher than cases reported from June 20 to 26.”
In total, the last seven days recorded 7,398 COVID-19 cases, with 19 additional severe and critical cases, and 74 deaths.
The DOH also reported 497 severe and critical cases in the country, as of July 3, with 381 occupying ICU beds.
The number of occupied ICU beds account for 15.3 percent of the 2,487 total nationwide.
On the other hand, 4,342 COVID-19 patients are occupying beds, or 19.9 percent of the 21,791 total COVID-19 beds allocated nationwide.
While a downward trend is projected in Metro Manila later this month, David said OCTA has monitored increasing cases in other parts of the country — Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Pampanga, Iloilo, and Benguet.
“In some areas, the rise has been fast. Several regions are seeing increasing numbers,” he said.
“However, these increases are still too small to be considered as ‘concerning’ for now,” he added.
With “high” positivity rates are Cavite (11.7%), Rizal (11.3%), and Laguna (10.3%).
Pampanga (9.1%), Batangas (7.3%), Iloilo (7.2%), and Benguet (6.2%) have “moderate” positivity rates.
For the NCR, David said OCTA’s projected decline in the number of COVID-19 cases is in line its earlier observation that its cases are slowing down their climb.
“The increase are no longer big. That’s why we believe that NCR may already peek soon because its positivity rate is already slowing down its increase,” he said.
Data from the OCTA shows that NCR’s positivity rate as of July 2 was at 8.3 percent, up from 6 percent on June 25.
David said the average daily attack rate of Metro Manila is at 3.6 per 100,000 population, which is lower than the threshold of 6 set by the Department of Health.
However, the NCR reproduction rate is still at 1.6, which is above the threshold of 1 set by the World Health Organization.
“This is really just a mini surge we are seeing,” David said.
At the House, incoming Speaker Leyte Rep. Martin Romualdez has filed House Bill No. 2 creating a medical reserve corps for deployment in cases of health emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the inability of the country’s healthcare system to cope with the surge of patients needing medical care due to lack of medically-trained personnel,” said House Bill No. 2 co-authored by Reps. Yedda Marie Romualdez, who is the wife of the next speaker, and Jude Acidre both of Tingog party-list.
Citing the latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO), the bill said there were six medical doctors per 10,000 Filipinos in 2017, a ratio lower than the WHO-recommended 10 physicians per 10,000 population.
It said that at present, the country has a shortage of 290,000 health workers, which is aggravated by an annual migration of 13,000 health care professionals.
“Against this backdrop, this bill aims to enhance the capacity of our country to produce and call on the needed manpower and expand its human health resources in times of disasters and public health emergencies of both national and local scale through the mobilization of a medical reserve force specifically trained to supplement the existing human health resources to ease the burden in our healthcare system,” the bill said. — With Wendell Vigilia
