Experts warn cases may increase anew
THE decline in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the Philippines has started slowing down in recent days, prompting the Department of Health (DOH) to warn of a reversal in the downward trend.
In a virtual press briefing, DOH – Epidemiology Bureau (EB) Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman said they have started to observe a slowing down in the downtrend since late September.
“In the early part of October, we have been seeing huge declines. It went down by 26 percent to 35 percent,” said De Guzman.
“But recently, we are seeing a slowdown. We are now seeing 14 percent drop in cases. It is still going down, but the decline is slower than the previous weeks,” she added.
Data shows that the average daily cases dropped by 26 percent during the period of October 5 to 11 (10,126) to October 12 to 18 (7,529).
It dropped by 35 percent during the period of October 12 to 18 (7,529) to October 19 to 25 (4,886).
A 14 percent drop, however, was noted during the period of October 19 to 25 (4,886) to October 26 to November 1 (4,183).
De Guzman said they are concerned that a continuation of the slowdown would lead to a reversal in the case trend in the country.
“We are closely monitoring this because the slow down can possibly lead to a negative to positive trend in cases,” she warned, adding that three regions, namely the Cordillera Administrative Region, Soccsksargen, and Mimaropa, have started showing positive growth rates in the recent week.
De Guzman said one possible reason for the slowdown in the decline in cases is the easing up of the active case finding among the authorities.
“There are areas that ease up on their active case finding. It must be continuous. We still need an intensified effort in our Prevent-Detect-Isolate-Treat-Reintegrate (PDITR) strategy,” she said.
DECEMBER
And as more people are able to go out with the economy gradually opening, the DOH warned that active cases in the country may increase to almost 50,000 by mid-December.
This is just slightly lower than the 53,642 active COVID-19 cases nationwide as of October 26.
“If the mobility will be coupled by lenient adherence to the health protocols and slow case finding, our active cases in the Philippines may climb to 49,000 to 50,000 as of December 15,” said De Guzman.
In contrast, she said the active COVID-19 cases may drop to as low as 2,000 if strict health protocols are maintained despite the increased mobility.
“By December 15, our numbers can be as low as 2,139 active cases if our mobility is maintained, (and if) we continue to be adherent to health protocols even with current or improve vaccination and with good detection of cases,” she also said.
In the National Capital Region, the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, the DOH official said the number of active cases may range from 1,000 to 3,500.
“By December 15, our numbers can be as low as 1,035 and can reach 3,535 if increased in mobility is coupled with decline in public health protocols adherence and slower case detection,” De Guzman said.
De Guzman said the vaccine coverage in the NCR is no longer a factor because “NCR has achieved a very high full vaccination coverage.”
Meanwhile, the DOH yesterday said cases of the more transmissible COVID variant Delta breached the 5,000-mark after 520 new cases were detected in the November 1 biosurveillance update involving 748 samples.
“About 69.52% (520) were positive from Delta variant (B.1.617.2; Indian lineage),” said De Guzman.
This brings the total Delta variant cases in the country to 5,331 out of the 16,589 samples sequenced.
De Guzman noted that all regions are now seeing the Delta variant as the most common in their areas.
“Once detected in a region, it becomes the more common lineage,” said the health official.
The DOH also reported that 83 additional cases of the Beta variant (B.1.351; South African lineage) have been detected, bringing the total to 3,562.
The DOH likewise said 64 additional Alpha variant (B.1.1.7; UK lineage) cases were detected, bringing the total number of the Alpha variant cases to 3,106.
