DOH sees cases dropping to 70 per day by April 30

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THE Department of Health yesterday said coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country could drop to as low as 70 per day by the end of April if the current level of mobility, vaccination rate, and compliance to minimum public health standards (MPHS) is maintained.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that based on current infection trends and “on particular assumptions,” daily cases by the end of next month could go down to 70 up to 268. The DOH reported 385 cases per day last week.

Vergeire said the assumptions include the Omicron variant being 2.05 times more transmissible than the Delta variant, that mobility nationwide is at pre-pandemic level, that Omicron accounts for almost all cases in the country, and that vaccine coverage is at 75 percent for fully vaccinated nationwide and 15 percent for those boosted.

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She, however, said that if compliance to MPHS declines, cases per day could climb from the current 385 per day average.

“Under the scenario of having 20 percent decline in MPHS compliance, the national daily cases may reach 670 cases per day by April 30,” said Vergeire.

Vergeire said the DOH projections are not stable and may still change since there are other factors that may come in, such as having a new COVID-19 variant or a sudden surge in cases in a particular area.

“I am emphasizing that these projections are not cast in stone. Anything can still happen… projections may change, and cases may still rise,” said Vergeire.

For now, though, the DOH official said they don’t see any uptick in cases around the country.

Proof of this, she said, is that the average daily COVID-19 cases in the past week is 21 percent lower compared to last week, while the positivity rate dropped to 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent last week.

“We are not seeing any significant increases in specific areas in the country,” she added.

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