DESPITE the continued denial of the Department of Health (DOH) that there is a community transmission of the Delta variant in the entire country, the more transmissible variant of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is already present in 16 out of the 17 regions of the Philippines.
In a virtual press briefing, DOH – Epidemiology Bureau (EB) Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman said the Delta variant has been detected in all regions except in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
“Currently, only BARMM has not yet detected a local Delta variant case. (But) we have already detected two variants of concerns in all regions. These are the Alpha and the Beta,” De Guzman also said.
De Guzman said this could be due to the small sample size coming from the BARMM.
De Guzman said the National Capital Region has the most number of variants of concerns, namely Alpha (476/UK), Beta (845/South Africa), and Delta (482/India).
As of the latest count, the country already has detected 2,322 Alpha variant cases; 2,588 Beta variant cases; and 1,273 Delta variant cases.
Despite the spread of the Delta variant, however, the DOH remains adamant there is still no community transmission nationwide.
“It will be difficult to declare nationally. Each region have different profiles,” De Guzman said, adding: “There is even a region that has no Delta variant case or regions that only have a few. It’s difficult to declare on a national scale. It is easier if it is on a smaller scale.”
De Guzman said the DOH has only been able to establish scientific evidence of having a community transmission in Metro Manila and the Calabarzon.
“We confirmed that there is community transmission of the Delta variant in NCR and Calabarzon. This is due to their large number of cases and after reviewing and conducting phylogenetic analysis,” she said.
As to whether the Delta variant is already the dominant variant in the country, De Guzman said their current genome sequencing methodology is not capable of determining it.
“The sampling methodology we are using is very bias towards detecting the variants. Our priority in sampling are just in areas with high cases, have severe and critical cases, have reinfection cases,” she said.
But with the Philippine Genome Center (PGC) increasing its capacities, De Guzman said it has already shifted to a methodology that will soon be able to determine the dominant variants in the country.
“We have started doing representative sampling. It won’t just be in areas with high cases, but even those with low numbers. We will include their samples. This way, we will know what is truly the prevalent variant of concern,” she said.
Among the 11,919 samples sequenced by PGC, 21.71 percent are Beta variant cases, 19.57 percent are Alpha variant cases, and 10.68 percent are Delta variant cases.
PEAK
A week out of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), Metro Manila is still expected to see high number of COVID-19 cases in the coming days and weeks, De Guzman said.
“We haven’t felt the full effect of our ECQ. There is really a probability that we will still see additional cases. In the next days and weeks, we’ll probably be seeing additional peaks,” De Guzman said.
Proof of this, she said, is the continuous increasing trend in cases in the metropolis in the past days.
“NCR continues its upward trend with reported cases increasing by 16 percent versus the previous seven days,” said the health official.
De Guzman said this is similar to the experience of the region during the surge seen earlier in the year.
“In the first peak, it really took us several weeks before we reached that peak in early April,” she said.
Data also shows that all Metro Manila local government units (LGUs) are at “high” risk classification from COVID-19 due to their high average daily attack rates (ADARs).
Having the highest ADAR for the period of August 12 to 25 is Pateros with 50.55, while the lowest is Marikina City with 15.01.
All 17 LGUs of NCR also have “moderate” two week growth rates for the same period.
Caloocan City had the highest growth rate at 153.5 percent, while Navotas City had the lowest at 26.97 percent.
Fourteen out of the 17 LGUs are also under Alert Level 4 of the DOH.
Only the cities of Caloocan, Mandaluyong, and Manila are at Alert Level 3, according to the health department.
Aside from Metro Manila, the DOH said increasing trends continue to be observed across the country.
De Guzman noted how the Philippines has a 63 percent two-week growth rate and an ADAR of 12.90 per 100,000 population that puts it under high risk classification.
“This ongoing case increase involves the whole of Luzon and select Visayas and Mindanao areas. All areas are showing increase in cases, with Luzon areas showing steep increase,” said De Guzman.
She noted how nine of the 17 regions, aside from NCR, are at high risk classification due to their high average daily attack rates. The Calabarzon has the highest rate with 18.47, while Western Visayas is at 8.21.
All 17 regions, meanwhile, are at moderate two-week growth rate.
Caraga saw a 100 percent two week growth rate, while Eastern Visayas only registered 6 percent increase in cases.
De Guzman also pointed how almost nine in every 10 LGUs are either at Alert Level 3 or 4.
“A total of 108 (89%) of provinces, HUCs, and ICCs are under Alert Level 3 and 4,” said the health official.
At Alert Level 4 are Malabon, Navotas, Pateros, Marikina, Taguig, Quezon City, Makati, San Juan, Muntinlupa, Parañaque, Las Piñas, Pasay, Pasig, and Valenzuela in Metro Manila; and Apayao, Baguio City, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Dagupan City, La Union, Cagayan, City Of Santiago, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Angeles City, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Olongapo City, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon, Lucena City, Rizal, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Camarines Sur, Masbate, Naga City, and Sorsogon in Luzon.
Also under Alert Level 4 are Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, Iloilo City, Bohol, Cebu, Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City, and Ormoc City in the Visayas; and Zamboanga Del Sur, Bukidnon, Cagayan De Oro City, Camiguin, Iligan City, Lanao Del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Davao City, Cotabato (North Cotabato), General Santos City, Sarangani, South Cotabato, Agusan Del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Butuan City, Surigao Del Norte, Surigao Del Sur, Cotabato City, and Lanao Del Sur in Mindanao.
Under Alert Level 3 are Caloocan, Mandaluyong, and Manila in NCR; and Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, Batanes, Aurora, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Romblon, Camarines Norte, and Catanduanes in Luzon.
Similarly under Alert Level 3 are Aklan, Bacolod City, Capiz, Negros Occidental, Mandaue City, Negros Oriental, Biliran, Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar (Western Samar), and Southern Leyte in Visayas; and Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Sibugay, Misamis Occidental, Davao Del Norte, Davao Del Sur, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Sultan Kudarat, and Maguindanao in Mindanao.
HIGHER DEATHS
Similarly, the DOH also reported an increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 for the month of August.
From only an average of 94 deaths per day in July, De Guzman noted how mortalities per day grew to 109 in the first 25 days of August.
“Nationally, deaths have increased since last week of July,” said de Guzman, also saying: “Sudden increase in NCR deaths were observed in the 1st week of August.”
The DOH official cited the rise in cases as the reason for the similar spike in deaths.
“In seeing an increase in cases, there will also be a proportional increase in our deaths,” she explained.
Proof of this, she said, is that the nationwide case fatality rate (CFR) has been steady at 1.73.
MANILA HOSPITALS
Sixty five percent or 317 of the 491 beds in six city-operated hospitals in Manila alloted for COVID-19 patients are already occupied, Dr. Arnold Pangan, head of the city’s health department, said yesterday.
The six city-operated hospitals are the Sta.Ana Hospital, Ospital ng Maynila, Ospital ng Sampaloc, Gat Andres Bonifacio Memorial Medical Center, Ospital ng Tondo and Justice Jose Abad Santos General Hospital.
Pangan said the 344-bed Manila COVID-19 Field Hospital also registered a 90 percent occupancy rate, or 311 beds.
The construction of the Manila COVID-19 Field Hospital, which cater to mild and moderate COVID-19 cases, started in April as cases surged and officials grappled to decongest hospitals and other health care facilities across the NCR. It was completed last June.
The P154 million hospital was patterned after a similar facility in Italy, which also grappled with a surge in COVID-19 cases last year. — With Ashzel Hachero
