DAILY coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases nationwide may jump to over 22,000 by the end of July based on current projections of the Department of Health (DOH).
In an online media forum, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire yesterday said infections may surge from the current 848 (June 26) to as high as 22,187 by July 31 depending on public adherence to minimum health protocols.
“Following the baseline scenario of 21 percent decline in our minimum public health standards from February 14, we may have 17,105 cases per day by the end of July,” said Vergeire.
She added the number may increase “within the range of 12,451 up to 22,187 of possible numbers depending on the rate of decline in compliance to the minimum public health standards (MPHS).”
By the middle of July, Vergeire said there is also a possibility that daily cases may reach 5,362 if there is a 22 percent decline in health protocol compliance.
Numbers may be slightly better at 3,827 and 4,606 daily cases by mid-July if there is 20 percent and 21 percent decrease, respectively, in health protocol compliance.
“If mobility continues to increase, compliance to MPHS continues to reduce and booster uptake is maintained at this low level, we may see 3,800 to 5,300 daily cases nationally by mid-July,” added the official.
Vergeire noted the increasing trend in cases across all regions in the country.
“(The) NCR (National Capital Region) maintains steep increase in reported cases, while the remaining areas also show increase in cases but remain at less than 150 cases per day,” said Vergeire.
She also said the national positivity rate is at 4.1 percent, while the average daily attack rate remains less than 1 per 100,000 population.
Despite this, Vergeire said more than half of the active COVID-19 cases remain to be asymptomatic and mild.
“The number of severe and critical cases remain less than 1,000 despite the continuous case increase in cases,” said the health official, adding this is the reason why the health care utilization rates remain at low risk in majority of the country.
Vergeire said another factor in the sharp rise in daily cases is the continued low number of boosted individuals.
“Based on these projections, cases may really go up if we continue to reduce compliance to the health protocols and people won’t get vaccinated and boosted,” said Vergeire.
OMICRON CASES
Meanwhile, Vergeire said 63 additional cases of Omicron subvariants of COVID-19 were detected in the latest genome sequencing conducted.
Vergeire said there are 50 additional BA.5 cases, 11 additional BA.2.12.1 cases, and two additional BA.4 cases.
“At the moment, exposure of individuals is still unknown and travel histories are being verified,” she said.
For the additional BA.5 cases, Vergeire said 38 individuals are from Western Visayas, five from Metro Manila, and seven returning overseas Filipinos (ROFs).
She said one individual is fully vaccinated, one is unvaccinated, while the vaccination status of the remaining 48 cases is still being verified.
The official also said one had mild symptoms while the remaining 49 are still being verified.
Vergeire also said 41 individuals are now tagged as recovered, four are still undergoing isolation, while the outcome of the other five are being verified.
The additional BA.5 cases bring the total in the country to 93.
For the new BA.2.12.1 Cases detected, DOH data showed there are seven individuals from Western Visayas, and four ROFs.
Vergeire said the vaccination status as well as the signs and symptoms of the 11 cases are still being verified.
Nevertheless, she said that 10 individuals are now tagged as recovered and one is still undergoing isolation.
There are now a total of 43 cases infected with the BA 2.12.1 subvariant.
Vergeire said that for the additional BA.4 cases detected, one came from Western Visayas and the other is an ROF.
She said one individual is fully vaccinated while the vaccination status of the other case is still being verified.
One individual had mild symptoms, while the other case is still being verified.
Both individuals are now tagged as recovered, according to Vergeire.
As of June 27, there are three cases of the BA.4 subvariant in the country.
POSITIVITY RATE
The independent OCTA Research said the public can expect more COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila in the coming days, with 14 of the 17 local government units in the metropolis seeing an uptick in infections. OCTA Research Fellow Guido David said the positivity rate in the NCR has climbed to 6 percent from 5.9 percent.
Positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who test positive for COVID-19 out of the total number of tested individuals.
“We expect na tataas pa siya (We expect that the cases will further increase) between 400 to 500 daily this week. Kahapon, it was actually 434 in a day pero di naman ito nakakabahala kasi mas mababa ito sa mga nakaraang surge (Yesterday, it was actually 434 cases, but this is no cause of alarm as the number is still low compared to previous surge in cases),” David told the “Laging Handa” public briefing.
“Marami ng lugar sa NCR ang tumataas ang kaso. Fourteen out of the 17 LGUs nakitaan natin ng pagtaas ng kaso (There are many areas in NCR that register an increase in cases),” he added.
Aside from Metro Manila, David said they have also monitored an uptick in cases in Calabarzon, parts of Pampanga, Western Visayas, particularly the provinces of Iloilo and Capiz, and South Cotabato in Mindanao.
The positivity rate in some areas in Calabarzon, he added, climbed to between five to seven percent, which is higher than the figure of less than five percent recommended by the World Health Organization.
David said the positivity rate in Western Visayas and South Cotabato is still below 10 percent.
Infectious diseases expert Dr. Rontgene Solante, also at the Laging Handa forum, said that while there is an increase in COVID-19 cases in the country, the hospitalization rate remains low.
The Department of Health earlier said the number of ICU beds occupied by COVID patients account for the 14.9 percent of the 2,628 total nationwide.
On the other hand, there are 4,034 COVID-19 patients that are occupying COVID-19 beds, or 18.1 percent of the 22,251 total beds allocated nationwide. — With Ashzel Hachero
