COVID reproduction rate in PH down to 1, says DOH

FROM a reproductivity rate of three to four in February, the “R-naught (R0)” of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the Philippines is now at one.

This was the disclosure made by the Department of Health yesterday, saying the country has managed to lower the number of people getting infected by the novel virus.

“Before, when the outbreak started, an infected person can infect three to four others.

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Now, we have brought down the transmission rate to only one,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a radio.

“R-naught” represents the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.

For example, if a disease has an R0 of 10, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 10 other people.

Vergeire said this is one of the reasons the case doubling time and mortality doubling time have also improved.

She said the mortality doubling time has increased to seven from six days at the start of the pandemic, to 10 to 15 days.

In a previous media briefing, Vergeire said the case doubling time for COVID-19 has been prolonged from two to three days before the imposition of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in March, to five during the ECQ.

“Now, the case doubling time in the NCR and the whole Philippines is already at seven days,” Vergeire said last week.

Asked to which they attribute the improvement, she said, “We just want to emphasize that the early community quarantine we imposed has this positive effect.”

COVID TOLL UPDATE

The DOH reported 359 new COVID-19 cases yesterday.

This brings the country’s total to 18,997 cases. Of the newly-reported cases, 76 are considered as “fresh cases” while 183 are “late cases.”

“Fresh cases” are defined as test results released to patient within last three days while “late cases” are test results released to a patient after more than four days.

Six new fatalities were also recorded yesterday, bringing the total to 966.

There were 84 more patients who have recovered, or a total now of 4,063 recoveries.

CONTACT TRACING

Sen. Panfilo Lacson said there are two effective yet cheap ways that the DOH can adopt for its contact tracing efforts, which he said will lead to huge savings on the part of the government.

For one, Lacson said the DOH can copy the method employed by the Carmona, Cavite local government unit which developed a contact tracing application called “Carmona COVID-19 Tracker” which works on Android and iOS by using a mobile phone’s GPS to track a user’s location history.

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Lacson said the app allows users to log interactions with other people, and do self-assessment if they experience symptoms of COVID-19.

“In just a few days of implementation, the local government has already signed up 42,000 out of the municipality’s 97,557 residents. For those without smartphones, the local government’s barangay and police personnel can input the information for them,” Lacson said.

Another system the DOH can adopt is the one implemented by Baguio City under Mayor Benjamin Magalong which did contact tracing using the EndCovid-19 system, which relies on the geographical information system (GIS) platform to plot areas where possible COVID-19 carriers live.

Instead of asking COVID-19 patients to simply list the persons they interacted with, Baguio City authorities ask them to “refresh” their memories as to where they went to identify possible carriers of the virus, including those who are not their personal acquaintances.

“Combined with cognitive interviews and analytical tools, the system has made Baguio City a model for contact tracing,” Lacson said.

He added: “With these technologies, we can potentially save P11.7 billion being asked by the Department of Health for contact tracers. I share Senate President Vicente Sotto III’s sentiment that there are more practical uses for the amount. These may include livelihood programs for those affected by the COVID-triggered lockdowns, among others.”

Senate minority leader Franklin Drilon said DOH should drop its plan to hire more than 130,000 contact tracers in consideration of the country’s growing budget deficit.

“Given the increasing budget deficit, which is projected to reach P1.56 trillion or 8.1 percent of the country’s gross domestic product this year, this P11.7 billion should better be put to good use,” he said.

Drilon said the DOH can tap the more than 400,000 barangay health and parent-leaders from the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program to carry out contact tracing “since they are already organized, they can be quickly mobilized as contact tracers.” — With Raymond Africa

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