THE independent OCTA Research yesterday said there is a possibility that the current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) surge in the National Capital Region (NCR) may have already peaked.
OCTA fellow Guido David noted that the region’s positivity rate has gone down to 16.4 percent (August 12) from 17.5 percent (August 6).
“This is the first time in the current wave that the weekly positivity rate decreased,” said David in a social media post, adding: “It gives us optimism that cases in the NCR may have already peaked.”
In an earlier post, David had also noted that region’s one-week case growth rate has dropped to 1 percent as of August 11.
“There is a possibility cases are coming to a peak or already peaked in the NCR. We will know next week if the trends hold,” David said.
Last Friday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported a slight downward trend observed in Metro Manila, with almost 1,300 cases per day.
Add to this, DOH officer-in-charge Maria Rosario Vergeire also noted an improvement in the region’s positivity rate, which was at 17.7 percent last Friday.
“It has slightly dropped because cases in the NCR have been plateauing,” said Vergeire.
Nevertheless, the health official has said that the trend in Metro Manila remains uncertain and will need further observation.
“This doesn’t give us that conclusion that cases are already going down. We will still be monitoring the trends, as it may also be a play of the different factors,” said Vergeire.
Both the DOH and the OCTA are waiting for the current COVID-19 surge to peak, which they say would signal the start of the decline in cases.
