COVID growth rate in Metro dips to -1%

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THE independent OCTA Research yesterday said the one-week growth rate of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila dropped to negative one percent, which it said could be the start of a downward trend in the region’s infections.

“The one-week growth rate in the NCR decreased to -1%, as of August 14, from 9% on August 7,” said OCTA fellow Guido David in a social media post.

David said the reproduction number in Metro Manila has also gone down to 1.15, as of August 11, from 1.21 as of August 4, while its positivity rate also decreased to 16.2% (as of August 13) from 17.4% (as of August 6).

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The average daily attack rate in the NCR also declined slightly to 8.70 per 100,000 (as of August 14), from 8.77 (as of August 7).

“This could be the start of a downward trend,” David said.

However, he said the current drop in the numbers are still not enough to be considered as “significant,” pointing out that “the one-week growth rate will have to decrease even further (e.g. -50%) to see significant decreases in daily new cases in the NCR.”

On Sunday, the OCTA said cases in the NCR may have already peaked, which could mean that the trend may already begin to drop.

And as Metro Manila continues to see improvement, 19 areas in Luzon are still seeing “high” to “very high” positivity rates.

OCTA data shows that 13 Luzon provinces have very high positivity rates of over 20 percent. These are Camarines Sur (50%), Isabela (46.5%), Nueva Ecija (43.2%), Tarlac (42.7%), Albay (33.2%), Cagayan (31.1%), La Union (30.3%), Laguna (29.5%), Pampanga (26%), Zambales (24%), Quezon (22.1%), Pangasinan (21.6%), and Benguet (21.6%).

Six provinces, on the other hand, have high positivity rates of over 10 percent, which include Rizal (19.8%), Cavite (18.2%), Batangas (15.8%), Bulacan (15.6%), Bataan (12.8%), and Ilocos Norte (11.4%).

The World Health Organization has set a threshold of 5 percent for positivity rate.

COVID-19 CASES

The Department of Health (DOH) yesterday reported an average of 4,001 daily COVID-19 cases over the past seven days, or a total of 28,008 cases for the period August 8 to 14.

DOH – Epidemiology Bureau Director Dr Alethea de Guzman has earlier said their latest projections show that COVID-19 cases may peak this coming September.

“This is 3 percent higher than cases reported from August 1 to 7,” said the DOH, adding there were 101 additional severe and critical cases and 229 deaths.

The DOH said that there are currently 822 severe and critical cases in the country, as of August 14. Of the total severe and critical cases, 719 are occupying ICU beds, which account for the 28 percent of the 2,571 total nationwide.

On the other hand, there are 6,781 COVID-19 patients that are occupying COVID-19 beds, which is 30.9 percent of the 21,968 total COVID-19 beds allocated nationwide.

Yesterday, Press Secretary Trixie Cruz-Angeles said she tested positive for COVID-19 but will still be working while isolating at home.

“Kahapon nagpa-COVID swab test ako, RT-PCR, at lumabas ang resulta kaninang umaga.

Ako po ay positive for COVID (I had an RT-PCR test yesterday for COVID-19 and the results were released this morning. I tested positive for COVID-19),” she said in a Facebook post.

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“Kung kaya’t sa bahay muna ako magtatrabaho habang ako ay naka isolation (That is why I will be working from home for now while I am in isolation),” she said adding that she was asymptomatic.

Acting Metropolitan Manila Development Authority chairman Carlo Dimayuga III also said he tested positive for COVID-19.

Sharon Gentalian, MMDA Public Affairs Director, said Dimayuga has only mild symptoms of the virus such as cold and will self-isolate for one week.

Vaccine expert panel chairwoman Nina Gloriani said it would be good for the country to plan ahead in anticipation of the release of an Omicron-adapted vaccine by October.

Gloriani, during the “Laging Handa” public briefing yesterday, said Pfizer and Moderna are expected to release its Omicron-adopted vaccines in the United States by October, and it will take a while before it becomes available to the country.

She said the manufacturers would still need to apply for an emergency use authority before it could be used in the country.

Gloriani said the Omicron variant and its subvariants are currently the dominating variants in the world. It is more contagious but less deadly than the original variant and is also more vaccine-evasive which makes getting a booster urgent. — With Jocelyn Montemayor and Ashzel Hachero

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