But OCTA sees Metro cases dipping in two weeks
THE number of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases reported daily over the past seven days has breached the 2,000-mark, the Department of Health (DOH) reported yesterday even as the independent OCTA Research projected that infections in Metro Manila will start dropping in the next two weeks.
The DOH’s COVID-19 Case Bulletin showed there was an average of 2,091 cases daily for the period of July 11 to 17, which is 44 percent higher than the number of cases reported from July 4 to 10.
In total, there were 14,640 COVID-19 cases recorded in the last seven days.
There were 35 additional severe and critical cases during the past week, and one death was reported.
In the same bulletin, the DOH said there are 589 severe and critical cases in the country, as of July 17, of which 481 are occupying ICU beds.
The number of occupied ICU beds account for 18.3 percent of the 2,630 total nationwide.
On the other hand, the DOH also said there are 5,189 COVID-19 patients who are occupying COVID-19 beds, which is 23.8 percent of the 21,809 total COVID-19 beds allocated nationwide.
METRO MANILA
OCTA fellow Guido David told CNN Philippines in an interview that COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) will start dipping within the week or next week.
“The peak in the NCR is not guaranteed to happen this week. It is just a possibility,” said David. “We might see the decrease in cases in NCR maybe this week, or next week, hopefully before August.”
In case it peaks, David said the daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may reach the 1,000-mark.
“We might see the peak in NCR at around 1,000 cases if the peak happens this week. It could be around the neighborhood of 1,000 or so cases. It is not really that alarming,” said David.
He said their projection is based on the slowdown in the growth of COVID-19 cases in the region, which stood at 29 percent for the period of July 8 to 14.
“We are seeing a slowing down of growth rate. It has decreased already to about 20 something percent. We are hoping that it will continue to decrease,” said David.
Infectious disease expert Dr. Rontgene Solante said COVID-19 cases may still peak in the next three to five days amid the presence of the more contagious subvariant BA.5.
Solante said that if such an uptick happens, he does not expect it to last long since many Filipinos are already vaccinated and protected against severe COVID-19.
Solante said the current increase in COVID-19 infections was expected due to the presence of the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, which he noted is now the dominant variant in many countries, and due to the low booster rate in the Philippines.
OUTSIDE NCR
While NCR could see COVID-19 cases dropping soon, David said some provinces are seeing contrasting trends. “(Such) may not be the case for some provinces, where cases are starting to rise,” he said.
Data shows that there are five provinces seeing “very high” positivity rates or above 20 percent. These are Aklan (35%), Tarlac (27.6%), Pampanga (23.1%), Laguna (22.6%), and Nueva Ecija (21%).
Similarly, nine provinces are seeing “high” positivity rates from COVID-19 tests: Cavite (19.8%), Rizal (18.5%), Antique (17.8%), Capiz (15.8%), Batangas (15.7%), Pangasinan (15.5%), Iloilo (14.2%), Isabela (14.1%), and Bulacan (11.4%).
And given the high positivity rates, OCTA said it would be good if some areas consider raising their respective alert levels.
“Many have lower vaccination rates and booster coverage, and healthcare utilization rates are already getting a bit high in some provinces. We probably don’t need to change the alert level in NCR. But this may need to be changed in some areas,” David said.
Solante believes that despite the increase in cases, the current Alert Level 1 status in most parts of the country, including Metro Manila, would stay based on the new metrics being followed by Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) to determine the alert level system.
The IATF was expected to meet yesterday, review the COVID-19 situation and decide on the new alert levels in the country.
No update on the alert level system, however, was available as of press time. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
