DOH: Only RT-PCR results officially counted
THE 284,458 active cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the country reported by the Department of Health (DOH) as of yesterday could just be the tip of the iceberg and not represent the full picture of the pandemic in the country.
Dr. Alethea De Guzman, director of the DOH’s Epidemiology Bureau, told lawmakers that the number of daily cases reported, while already high, are only the results of RT-PCR tests.
“They do not include the results of rapid antigen tests,” De Guzman said during the online hearing of the House Committee on Health when asked by Marikina Rep. Stella Quimbo if the cases are “understated.”
“Actually yes, and even outside our country, it is underreported for several reasons,” De Guzman said.
“Number one, kapag hindi kayo nagpa-RT-PCR or hindi kayo na-antigen, hindi kayo masasama sa bilang (Number one, if you don’t undergo RT-PCR or antigen testing, you’ll not be included in the tally),” she explained.
She said that while individuals who yield positive antigen test results are required to undergo confirmatory RT-PCR test, many do not do a second test.
“There are also those who are asymptomatic, unknowingly infected. Hindi natin na-de-detect kaya hindi rin sila nabibilang doon sa total confirmed cases natin (We can’t detect it so they’re excluded from our total confirmed cases),” she added.
Quimbo, who was among those infected by the dreaded virus, said six members of their household got COVID-19 and only two underwent RT-PCR tests while the rest only undertook antigen test.
The independent OCTA Research earlier said as much as 2.44 million people in the National Capital Region (NCR) could actually be infected with COVID-19 if antigen test results are to be included.
OCTA said that based on their estimates, the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila could be several times higher than the figures reported by the DOH.
Last Monday, the country recorded 37,000 new cases for the second straight day and 23 additional deaths that pushed the toll to nearly 53,000.
The current positivity rate in the Philippines stood at 46 percent among the 77,410 tested samples on January 15 which is mostly attributed to the highly transmissible Omicron variant.
OMICRON TAKES OVER NCR
Also during the hearing, De Guzman said 15 out of the 17 cities and one municipality in Metro Manila already have confirmed cases of Omicron infections based on the department’s latest whole genome sequencing.
“The Omicron variant is now the predominant variant in the National Capital Region,” De Guzman said, adding that the number of infections has also increased because of other factors such as increased mobility and reduced adherence to minimum public health standards and the delays in detection and isolation of cases.
De Guzman said the number of cases this month was the “fastest and largest” since the start of the pandemic, adding that while the increase has slowed down, the country has yet to see a decline in the number of infections.
Because of the quick spread of Omicron, De Guzman said the number of COVID-19 cases in all regions has also increased, noting that the surge in Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal (NCR Plus) is higher than the reported peak in September 2021 which was caused by the spread of the Delta variant.
She, however said hospitalization, particularly severe and critical cases, were fewer than what was reported between August and September last year.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III yesterday said COVID-19 cases in the NCR are nearly plateauing, with a hope that it will soon lead to a sharp decline in cases.
In a radio interview, Duque said they have started to observe that the trend in cases has started to stabilize with infections no longer on an upward trend.
“We are starting to plateau or stabilize. It takes a longer period for cases to double. Hopefully, it won’t increase anymore,” said Duque.
With this, he said the government is hopeful that the trend will see a reversal of the surge very soon.
“We hope to soon see a decline in cases, much like in South Africa, where cases dropped after only four weeks. It was fast. Hopefully, we get the same direction,” said Duque.
The health chief, however, refused to declare that Metro Manila has already reached its peak in cases.
“It is possible that we have reached our peak (in NCR). But it is still premature to say we have peaked. Let us wait further so that we can better establish a clearer pattern or trend,” he said.
On Monday, the independent OCTA Research said COVID-19 indicators in Metro Manila are starting to go down, including case growth rate, positivity rate, and reproduction rate.
OCTA, however, stressed that it is still too early to assume that cases are now on a downtrend.
In a related development, OCTA said COVID-19 cases in the City of Manila has declined since the previous week.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said COVID-19 indicators in the nation’s capital have been improving.
The group noted how Manila City’s seven-day average of new cases decreased by 7 percent, or from 1,958 to 1,829 in the previous week.
The reproduction number in Manila also dropped to 1.73, from 4.30 just a week prior.
David said the decrease in COVID-19 indicators in Manila will bode well for the whole region if it persists.
“If new cases continue to decrease in Manila, there is a strong possibility that new cases in the NCR will decrease as well,” said David.
HOSPITAL BED OCCUPANCY
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the hospital bed occupancy rate in Metro Manila is already at 60 percent.
In a virtual press briefing, Vergeire said they have observed an increase in admission in hospitals, although its overall capacity remains at “moderate risk”.
“With the increasing number of hospital admissions in NCR the past week, the bed utilization is now at 60 percent and ICU utilization at 58 percent,” said Vergeire.
“While hospital admissions in NCR have increased the past week, our healthcare systems are still at moderate-levels of capacity,” she added.
Because of this, the health official encouraged the asymptomatic, and those with mild or moderate COVID-19 symptoms to opt for home quarantine or isolation.
She said this is provided that such cases meet the criteria, including having separate rooms from the rest of the household, having their own bathroom, and not having senior citizens, children, and has comorbidities in the household.
“Mild COVID-19 cases can be treated at home,” said Vergeire.
And with more cases expected to undergo home treatment, she said the government is already preparing to distribute “Kalinga Kits”. — With Gerard Naval
