DAYS after seeing a climb in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region (NCR), the independent OCTA Research yesterday noted that cases have started to slide back in the region.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said that the one-week growth rate in Metro Manila became negative again.
“A few days ago, the NCR recorded a positive weekly growth rate (8%). This was likely due to backlog in cases,” said David.
“For the week of November 11 to 17, the NCR had an average of 379 new cases per day, compared to 407 for the week of November 4 to 10, for a growth rate of negative 7%,” he added.
The reproduction number in the NCR stood at 0.5 as of November 14, according to OCTA.
Meanwhile, the positivity rate for November 10 to 16 was pegged at 3 percent.
And given the low figures in the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines, David said average daily cases may soon drop in the region to 200.
“With such a low positivity rate, we project the NCR will continue to have a decline in new cases, with a target seven-day average of 200 new cases by end of November,” said David.
Still, he stressed that the continued drop in COVID-19 cases does not warrant complacency.
“We must continue to adhere to minimum public health standards,” said David.
‘MODERATE RISK’
Outside Metro Manila, the OCTA said six provinces remain at “moderate” risk classification, and these are Negros Oriental, Isabela, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Palawan, and Oriental Mindoro.
The group noted that the provinces have “high” to “critical” positivity rates in Negros Oriental (30%), Isabela (25%), Cagayan (22%), Palawan (27%), and Oriental Mindoro (11%).
Their average daily attack rates per 100,000 are also at moderate levels: Negros Oriental (5.09), Isabela (3.76), Cagayan (2.57), Nueva Vizcaya (6.55), Palawan (2.10), and Oriental Mindoro (2.52).
The case growth rates of the six provinces, however, are all in the negative.
OCTA Research fellow professor Ranjit Rye urged the national and local governments to clarify their policies on the access of the unvaccinated portion of the population, particularly very young children, to non-essential places like shopping malls.
Rye suggested that local government units issue their respective ordinances to limit potential risks and sustain recent gains against the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Hindi ho talaga puwedeng magpabaya, magkumpiyansa. Nandito pa ho ang COVID at iyong mga trends natin ho hindi ho permanente iyan, pababa nga tayo ngayon kung hindi tayo magtutulung ay madali ho talagang bumaligtad iyong trend at tumaas (We cannot let our guards down. COVID remains a threat and these trends are not permanent. We are seeing lower numbers but if we don’t cooperate, the trend could just as easily reverse and start climbing again),” he warned.
He said the observance of minimum public health standards must remain in place while the government continue to push for vaccination of more Filipinos. — With Peter Tabingo
