OCTA: Infections highest in NCR Plus areas
THE independent OCTA Research group yesterday projected that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila will peak this week, consistent with its earlier projection that infections in the country will be highest between mid-January to the end of the month.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said: “If the increase in positivity rate is slowing down, then the peak in the NCR (National Capital Region) might occur within the week. Let us hope that is the case.”
On Sunday, the Department of Health reported 28,707 new cases, which brought the total number of COVID infections in the country to 2,965,447.
David noted how the OCTA has recently seen a slowdown in the increase of the region’s positivity rate.
“The data from DOH shows that the rate of increase of the positivity rate could be slowing down. We will know in the next few days if the positivity rate is indeed slowing down or if this is just an artificial effect,” said David.
As of January 7, OCTA said the positivity rate in the NCR was at 50.5 percent. “It is the first time it exceeded 50% in the NCR,” said David.
Positivity rate is the percentage of all COVID-19 tests performed at a certain time that are actually positive.
In a separate media post, David said local government units (LGUs) in the Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, or what is tagged as the NCR Plus areas, have recorded the highest number of new COVID-19 cases in the entire country during the period January 2 until 8.
David said Metro Manila reported an average of 8,468 new cases, followed by Bacoor City with 218, Antipolo City with 211, Cainta with (202), and Dasmariñas City with 152.
Rounding the top 10 are Imus City with 150 average cases, San Jose del Monte City with 142, General Trias City with 119, Taytay with 87, and Santa Rosa City with 86.
David also noted that the seven-day case growth rates of the 10 LGUs were steep, with Antipolo City having the highest at 1,523 percent; followed by General Trias City with 1,388 percent; Cainta with 1,343 percent; Santa Rosa City with 1,333 percent; and San Jose del Monte City with 1,320 percent.
Other LGUs likewise registered high growth rates, among them Bacoor City with 1,182 percent; Imus City with 1,150 percent; Dasmariñas City with 913 percent, Taytay with 867 percent, and NCR with 785 percent.
The OCTA fellow said the 10 LGUs also had high to critical level of average daily attack rates per 100,000 population led by NCR at 59.81, followed by Cainta at 55.37, General Trias City at 32.35, Imus City at 31.74, Bacoor City at 31.71, Taytay at 24.08, Antipolo City at 24, San Jose del Monte City at 21.95, Santa Rosa City at 21.72, and Dasmariñas City at 19.70.
HEALTHCARE
The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) yesterday ordered a review of the number of hospitals beds allotted for COVID-19 patients and ordered that more beds be made available in Metro Manila and surrounding towns and provinces to ensure the identification and immediate care and medical treatment of those sick with the virus.
Cabinet Secretary and IATF spokesman Karlo Nograles yesterday said that due to the rising number of cases and the increasing hospital care utilization, “we encourage all who (have) become symptomatic to immediately isolate as this will help control transmission. Home isolation is recommended for those with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19.”
Nograles, citing DOH records, said 35 percent of Intensive care Unit (ICU) beds around the country are already in use, 39 percent of isolation beds, and 38 percent of ward beds, and 18 percent of ventilators.
In Metro Manila, 52 percent of ICU beds are occupied, 50 percent of isolation beds, 65 percent of ward beds and 26 percent of ventilators.
In Antipolo City, the Rizal Provincial Hospital System (RPHS) Antipolo Annex 1 and 2 temporarily closed their outpatient departments (OPDs) starting today.
The RPHS Annex 1 will reopen its OPD on January 21, while annex 2 has yet to disclose when they will reopen.
The city government urged residents to utilize both hospitals’ online teleconsultation and telemedicine services while the OPDs are closed.
Aside from increasing hospital bed capacity in Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces, Nograles said the IATF has also approved and adopted the recommendations of the task force’s Sub-Technical Working Group (TWG), which includes, among others: more active coordination with relevant stakeholders to integrate monitoring of the capacity of Temporary Treatment and Monitoring Facilities (TTMFs) in its measurement of health systems capacity; ensure that patients needing care are promptly and appropriately referred; and reassessment of the capacity of TTMFs, increase in TTMF capacity where needed, and removal of referral quotas from hospitals.
Nograles said the DOH Field Implementation and Coordination Team (FICT) and the National Task Force (NTF) Health Facilities Sub-Cluster have been directed to communicate with hospitals in the NCR and the surrounding areas to determine the allocation of COVID-19 bed capacity, while the One Hospital Command Center has been tasked to ensure close to real-time updating of health systems capacity based on functional bed capacity and level of available health care workers.
The NTF Health Facilities Sub-Cluster, together with the DOH Knowledge Management and Information Technology Service, has also been directed to increase the capacity of telehealth and telemedicine outside NCR while local government units (LGUs) are urged to provide telemedicine and immediate referral to their constituents that require additional assessment and treatment.
Nograles said to improve the COVID-19 Laboratory Network, laboratories should be available seven days a week to accommodate the increase in the conduct of Reverse Transcription—Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) tests in Metro Manila and the surrounding areas.
He said the RT-PCR testing capacity in NCR Plus areas should also be improved with testing priorities given to A2 (senior citizens) and A3 (with comorbidities) populations.
He said applications for Licenses to Operate for new RT-PCR laboratories shall also be fast-tracked and commodities for the conduct of swabbing and testing will be provided.
Nograles said the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) was also asked to intensify active case finding in the NCR Plus areas and contact tracing up to the third generation in all areas — not just in areas under Alert Level 3 but also those under Alert Level 2.
Under Alert Level 3 until January 15 are Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Cagayan Bataan, Pampanga and Zambales and the cities if Baguio, Dagupan, Santiago, Angeles, Olongapo, Lucena, Naga, Iloilo, and Lapulapu while the rest of the country is under Alert Level 2.
DILG shall also ensure that Emergency Operations Centers with functional triage areas are in place in all local government units to ensure that only patients needing hospitalization are brought to health facilities.
The Barangay Health Emergency Response Teams are directed to ensure that those undergoing home isolation or quarantine are monitored and that access to testing, treatment, and facility referral are made available, especially the elderly, those with comorbidities, or those belonging to vulnerable sectors.
Home isolation is recommended for mild cases.
Nograles said the National Vaccination Operations Center (NVOC) was also directed to increase vaccination rates outside NCR as soon as possible to improve protection against COVID-19.
The NVOC dashboard showed that as of January 4, more than 110 million doses of vaccines have been administered nationwide. Of this, more than 57 million are for the first dose, 50.6 million are fully vaccinated and 2.2 million for booster. — With Jocelyn Montemayor and Christian Oineza
