THE Department of Health yesterday said the number of daily new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases throughout the country has increased by 33 percent over the past seven days and is now nearing the 3,000-mark.
Based on the department’s COVID-19 Case Bulletin, an average of 2,791 cases were recorded daily for the period of July 18 to 24. In total, the last seven days recorded 19,536 COVID-19 infections.
The DOH said there were 56 additional severe and critical case during the past week, with 42 deaths.
There are currently 666 severe and critical cases in the country, as of July 24, of which 578 are occupying ICU beds accounting for 21.7 percent of the 2,664 total nationwide.
On the other hand, there are 5,804 COVID-19 patients who are occupying COVID-19 beds, which is 26 percent of the 22,331 total COVID-19 beds allocated nationwide.
In an interview with reporters, DOH officer-in-charge Maria Rosario Vergeire said the country remains capable of managing COVID-19 cases amid the current surge. “Our hospitals are not being overwhelmed although we do have some hospitals that are closely monitored,” she said.
Independent OCTA Research fellow Guido David said its indicators show that the National Capital Region (NCR) is now at “moderate” risk classification.
OCTA numbers show that the average daily cases in the NCR have gone up to 1,033 for the period of July 18 to 24, from a seven-day average of 829 cases for the period of July 11 to 17.
Metro Manila’s average daily attack rate also went up to 7.17 per 100,000 population from 5.75 per 100,000 population the week earlier.
Likewise, the positivity rate in the region also increased to 14.1 percent as of July 23 from 12.7 percent as of July 16, even as the reproduction number remain unchanged at 1.38.
Vergeire agreed with OCTA that Metro Manila can already be classified as being at moderate risk classification.
“Because of the continuing increase in the number of cases, the NCR is now at moderate risk case classification. (We are at) moderate risk case classification because the average daily attack rate (ADAR) is at 6.25,” said Vergeire.
However, she stressed that the region cannot be considered fully as being at moderate risk classification because the healthcare utilization rate (HCUR) remains low.
“The healthcare utilization rate is at less than 50 percent. That means that when we cross
tabulate using the new metrics system, NCR is still at low risk,” said Vergeire.
The DOH has earlier said the country’s alert level system will be indicated solely by the ADAR and HCUR after the government removed the two-week case growth rate as among the indicators used by the DOH.
PEAK
Vergeire also said the DOH has yet to see the current surge peaking as its projection shows a continued upward trend in COVID-19 cases.
“We have our own projections that the range of cases by the end of July might reach 3,000 cases,” said Vergeire, adding: “It can be more like up to 11,000 based on the assumptions that we used such as minimum public health standards compliance, mobility patterns, the waning immunity.”
David agreed with Vergeire. “The peak in new COVID-19 cases in the NCR has not been reached as cases continue to increase,” he said.
Asked in a televised public briefing yesterday when the peak in cases in Metro Manila is expected, David said it is not yet clear at this time. “It could happen anytime. It could happen next week. Or it could happen as late as August,” he said.
On Monday last week, the OCTA fellow said the peak in NCR cases may have been reached already or may happen within last week or this week.
But last Friday, David backtracked on the projection after seeing a reversal of trends in the course of one week.
