CORONAVIRUS disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may surge to as high as 2,000 per day once it sees the peak of the ongoing surge, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said yesterday.
In a radio interview, Duque said that projections from partner organizations of the Department of Health (DOH) show that daily cases reported may be somewhere in the range of 1,500 to 2,000 by next month.
“The cases in the NCR may reach 800 to 1,200 a day by the end of June or the first week of July. That could peak at 1,500 to 2,000 sometime maybe by mid-July or end of July,” Duque said.
Duque’s statement was back by Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, who said seeing thousands of daily cases is possible in Metro Manila due to the presence of more +transmissible COVID-19 variants, low booster shot uptake, and non-compliance to the health protocols.
“Nothing is certain due to the numerous factors that can contribute to wide transmission and infections that are happening,” said Vergeire in a virtual press briefing.
“We will have the peak in the number of cases as early as 3rd week of July until the 1st week of August,” she added.
On Tuesday, the independent OCTA Research said that COVID-19 cases in the NCR are projected to increase up to 1,000 per day by the end of the month, with the peak happening by the first or second week of July.
According to Vergeire, the projections are likely to be met if the current trend in COVID-19 cases remains unchanged.
“The country continues to see an upward trend in new COVID-19 cases nationally and in most regions,” said the health official, adding: “The NCR maintains a sharp increase in reported cases. The increase has been continuous and has been significant, specifically here in the NCR.”
Vergeire noted that during the past months, Metro Manila has been recording less than 100 cases per day.
“Now, we are seeing almost 300 cases per day already in the NCR,” she said.
Nevertheless, the health official noted how the situation remains manageable as healthcare utilization rates (HCURs) remain low.
She attributed this to the low number of severe (367, 6.7%) and critical (187, 3.4%) cases needing admission in hospitals.
“Even though there is continued increase in cases, the number of severe and critical cases are not rising. Those reported are not enough to say that it is already significant,” she said.
“It is not translating into higher admissions in our hospitals, in our ICUs. We hope we can sustain it at this point, where it’s increasing but are mostly mild and asymptomatic,” added Vergeire.
Data shows that the HCUR in all regions are in the range of 14.61 percent to 17.82 percent.
BA.5 CASES
Also yesterday, Vergeire said 32 additional cases of the COVID-19 Omicron subvariant BA.5 were detected in the country during the latest genome sequencing run of the Philippine Genome Center (PGC).
Vergeire said there are now 43 cases of the BA.5 nationwide.
Among the newly detected cases, 21 individuals came from Western Visayas, four from Calabarzon, four from Metro Manila, and three from Central Luzon.
“At the moment, the exposure of these individuals are still unknown and travel histories are still being verified,” said Vergeire.
The DOH said 30 of the infected individuals are fully vaccinated, one is partially vaccinated, while the vaccination status of one case is still being verified.
Among them, 22 were with mild symptoms, five were asymptomatic, while the remaining five are still being verified.
Sixteen of the cases are now tagged as recovered, 14 are still undergoing isolation, while the outcome of the remaining two are being verified.
Asked if the rise in the number of subvariant BA.5 cases means there is already a community transmission, Vergeire said not quite.
“Although observations are right that the number of cases is growing, we can still see the linkages. It is still there,” said Vergeire.
“We still need further review of all these cases so we can determine what type of transmission is already happening,” she added, explaining that a community transmission means that the linkages of cases can no longer be established.
