THE independent OCTA Research group is projecting a higher average of 300 to 400 daily coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases by the end of November in Metro Manila because of the higher positivity rate in the region.
In a televised public briefing, OCTA fellow Guido David said the positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) jumped to 9.2 percent as of November 22, from 7.4 percent last November 15.
The OCTA had earlier said daily COVID cases in the region will be at a low of 100 cases per day.
“It is really possible that we may see an increase here in Metro Manila. Now, we average 260 cases per day. By the end of November, we may even reach 300 to 400 cases per day,” David said.
He said it is even possible that cases may continue to increase well into the last month of 2022.
“Unless the trends change, this looks like the start of another wave of infections in the NCR as cases will likely start increasing again,” David said.
But the Department of Health (DOH) said the positivity rates are not enough basis to assess the COVID-19 trend.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the positivity rate alone is prone to misinterpretation, especially given the low testing rate in the country.
“We don’t use positivity rate as a measure in our COVID-19 situation. It is easily influenced by different factors. We could be misled if we continue using that,” said Vergeire in a recent press briefing.
The DOH officer-in-charge said their trend assessment is more focused on the healthcare utilization and occupancy rate in hospitals.
“We are not so much (focused) on the number of cases but more on admission in hospitals. If there are only a few severe, critical cases and hospital admissions do not breach 40 to 50 percent, I think we are good,” said Vergeire.
This was seconded by the Private Hospitals Association of the Philippines Inc. (PHAPI), which said that majority of COVID-19 cases do not need confinement since patients only have mild to moderate symptoms.
“This is why even if positivity rates go up, the private hospitals do not feel its effects,” said PHAPI President Dr. Jose Rene de Grano in a televised public briefing.
