THE Department of Health (DOH) yesterday projected that the current surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases will last until the end of 2022.
In a press conference, DOH officer-in-charge Maria Rosario Vergeire said that “the COVID-19 wave can really persist and last in the country even way through October, November, December.”
Vergeire noted that cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) alone are already projected to jump to over 10,000 daily by early October.
“We have this Autumn Projection. And based on this, we can have as high as 10,612 cases of COVID-19 in the NCR alone by the 1st week of October,” said Vergeire.
She said the projections are based on assumptions that the meager booster shot coverage, low compliance rate to minimum public health standards (MPHS), high mobility of people, and continued entry of different COVID-19 variants will continue.
“These are projections. It may happen, but hopefully it won’t, especially because we have control over two of these assumptions, namely the uptake of boosters and compliance to MPHS,” said Vergeire.
On Monday, the independent OCTA Research said it believes that the current wave of COVID-19 cases may last until the “ber” months.
Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri yesterday said Sen. Cynthia Villar has tested positive for COVID-19, while Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano said he has recovered from the infection.
“I just want to put on record that our distinguished colleague Sen. Cynthia Villar had tested positive today for COVID-19. We would like to wish her well and pray for her speedy recovery and for all our members to be extra careful,” Zubiri said.
Villar attended yesterday’s session online.
Sen. Imee Marcos has also tested positive for COVID-19.
F2F CLASSES
With high mobility among the main factors of sustaining the surge, Vergeire admitted that the impending resumption of face-to-face classes carry the risk of more infections.
“One factor for transmission of the virus is to have people congregate. The possibility of infection will always be there. The risk will always be there,” said Vergeire.
She, however, stressed that such a risk should not be enough reason to cancel the return to physical learning for students.
“Even if the factors are there, we can remove or mitigate these factors by adhering to safety protocols,” she also said.
In addition, she said such a surge in schools can be prevented if there will be more children vaccinated against COVID-19.
“We must continue to convince parents to have their children vaccinated,” she said.
Vergeire likewise said it is crucial for schools to designate safety officers in their respective establishments to monitor the students regularly.
OMICRON SUBVARIANTS
Vergeire said 906 additional BA.5 cases, 11 additional BA.4 cases, and 7 additional BA.2.12.1 cases have been detected in the country in the health department’s latest genome sequencing.
“At the moment, the exposure of individuals, travel histories, and health status are being verified,” said Vergeire.
For the additional BA.5 cases, there are at least 10 individuals from all regions except for Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
In all, there are already 4,013 cases of BA.5 in the country.
Of the new cases, a total of 682 individuals are fully vaccinated, 14 cases are partially vaccinated, while the vaccination status of the other 210 are still being verified.
Currently, 814 individuals are now tagged as recovered, 49 are still undergoing isolation, while the outcome of the remaining 43 are being verified.
For the additional BA.4 cases, there were five individuals from the Bicol Region, and two each Western Visayas, Cordillera Administrative Region, and the NCR.
There were nine individuals who are fully vaccinated, while the vaccination status of the other two are still being verified.
All 11 individuals, however, are now tagged as recovered.
In sum, the total number of BA.4 cases in the Philippines is now 115.
For the new BA.2.12.1 cases, four individuals are from Ilocos Region, and one each from Cagayan Valley, Calabarzon, and Western Visayas. Of these, six are fully vaccinated while the vaccination status of the remaining one individual is still being verified.
All seven individuals are now tagged as recovered, according to the DOH.
In total, there are now 181 cases of the BA.2.12.1 in the Philippines.
POSITIVITY RATE, ADAR
Vergeire said the country’s positivity rate is already at 18.6 percent. Last week’s positivity rate was only at 16.7 percent.
The number is way higher than the ideal threshold of 5 percent positivity rate set by the World Health Organization.
Vergeire also said that the country’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) remains to be at low risk at 3.42 cases per 100,000 population.
Metro Manila and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), however, are at moderate risk classification due to average daily attack rates of 9.15 and 7.9 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. — With Raymond Africa
