THE Philippines is nearing its goal of flattening the curve of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), according to an epidemiological data analyst working with the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID).
The Department of Health agreed. “As far as the trend that we are seeing, it has a good indication. We are flattening the curve,” said Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire.
As of Tuesday, there were 9,684 COVID-19 cases in the country (an increase of 199 cases), 637 deaths (an increase of 14), and 93 new recovered patients or a total of 1,408 recoveries.
Of the total cases, 1,819 are medical frontliners. Majority are nurses (685), followed by physicians (590), nursing assistants (107), medical technologists (70), and administrative staff (49). There have been 34 fatalities, including 25 physicians and seven nurses, and 350 recoveries.
In a virtual press conference of the DOH on Tuesday, Dr John Wong, a member of the IATF-EID data analytics group, said data indicated the flattening has been occurring in the past weeks, especially in the National Capital Region where majority of the COVID-19 cases were reported.
He said that before the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) was imposed in Luzon starting March 15, there was a doubling of cases every one to two days. “Doubling time now is every four days. In the NCR, the flattening is even more evident compared to national level,” said Wong.
“We start to see the flattening. So, we actually have a more dramatic improvement, flattening at a more dramatic rate,” he added.
Wong said cases had a baseline doubling time of 2.5 days, but that the current doubling time is at 4.6.
As for mortality, he said the baseline doubling time was four days, but that the current doubling time is at 5.7 days.
“We already saw that, 10 days ago, there was already an improvement in both cases and mortality (doubling time),” said Wong.
He said this is despite the 8,000 backlog in the laboratory testing of COVID-19 samples. He said the “positivity rate,” or the likelihood of the backlog samples testing positive, is only at 10 percent.
“Even if we add the backlog, most of the backlog will be negative. Maybe about 10 percent of that will be positive. Even if we add the cases in the laboratory to the cases now, we see that it will not substantially speed up the curve,” said Wong.
Vergeire said despite the improvement, the government could not be complacent especially if the figures would be used as basis for extending or lifting the ECQ which ends on May 15.
Vergeire and Wong said the public needs to remain vigilant.
“Although we see the flattening or improvement now, if and when we relax the ECQ, we should be vigilant about the resurgence. Practicing the new behavior is important so we can prevent or delay the resurgence,” said Wong.
“The moment that we lift our restrictions, there will be a resurgence. We need to continue these practices and behaviors into that new normal,” said Vergeire.
Presidential spokesman Harry Roque said the apparent flattening is proof the ECQ is effective in containing the disease.
Roque also noted that the number of recovered patients continued to rise and has outnumbered the number of deaths.
The Philippines ranks fifth among countries in the Western Pacific Region with the highest number of COVID-10 cases, after China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.
The disease that originated in China is now present in 215 countries and territories. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), it has recorded at least 3.4 million cases of as May 4, including 239,740 deaths.
EMERGENCY HIRING
While medical frontliners are being hampered by COVID-19, Vergeire said the DOH remains open to hiring healthcare workers, especially after reports that medical facilities have terminated some of their employees.
“To qualified applicants, we encourage you to apply in our emergency hiring program so we can help our hospitals,” said Vergeire.
Vergeire said the DOH has received requests for additional health workers from 50 medical facilities and it has opened 2,258 slots with 709 applicants hired and are up for deployment.
Over the weekend, reports said the University of Santo Tomas Hospital has begun reducing its manpower to minimize its expenses and cope with financial losses.
BAN, AGAIN
President Duterte on Monday night directed Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra to look into the legality of barring Filipino healthcare workers from leaving and serving in other countries.
“We’ll have to look into this again. It has to be this week. Maybe two days from now, we’ll have to meet again and consult legal, Secretary Guevarra, whether or not it would be legal for us to just stop the migration of health workers,” he said.
He said the departure of health workers places country at a disadvantage because of a loss of its health forces. But the more important thing to consider, he said, is the danger from the coronavirus that the health workers must face when they work abroad.
“If I send you to a war front, the enemy is the COVID, the microbes, I feel pity… I do not want you to go there and come back in a coffin,” he in mixed Filipino and English.
The government last month temporarily banned health workers from leaving for work abroad but later lifted the restriction and allowed those with existing employment contracts as of March to leave.
FILIPINOS ABROAD
The Department of Foreign Affairs reported 48 new cases of Filipinos abroad infected with COVID-19 but said the number of recoveries has breached the 500-mark with 38 new recoveries recorded from the Americas and Europe.
With the 48 new cases, the DFA said the number of Filipinos in 46
countries with COVID-19 has reached 1,867 with 1,140 undergoing
treatment and 513 recoveries.
“While there are 48 new cases today, updated figures show that the daily rate of new recoveries is higher than the new confirmed cases,” the DFA also said.
Another positive development is that no new deaths were reported, “which is a first in the past two weeks of reporting and monitoring by the DFA.”
The Americas remained as the region with the highest number of deaths
for infected Filipinos with 120 deaths, followed by Europe with 73, the Middle East and Africa with 19, and Asia and the Pacific region with two.
Europe registered the most number of cases, at 580 with 364 undergoing
treatment and 143 recovered.
America has 488 cases with 132 recoveries; Asia and the Pacific, 375 cases and 208 recoveries; the Middle East and African regions with 424 cases and 30 recoveries.
SENATE EMPLOYEES
One of the 18 Senate employees who tested positive in rapid tests for COVID-19 on Monday, tested negative for the novel coronavirus 19 after undergoing a confirmatory test later that day.
Senate President Vicente Sotto III said the Senate employee is a staff member of Sen. Richard Gordon who brought the employee for confirmatory test at the Philippine Red Cross.
Sotto said the 17 others were brought to different hospitals on Monday, where they underwent swab testing. Relatives of those who tested positive in the rapid tests will also be tested for the virus at the Senate clinic.
Gordon proposed that large events places such as the Mall of Asia Arena, Araneta Coliseum, and similar venues which can hold large crowds be temporarily converted into mass testing centers to ensure that physical distancing will be strictly observed.
Gordon said results will be forwarded to the DOH, which will be inform the patient of the results. This is so that DOH can keep an accurate centralized tally of cases.
TESTING CENTERS
The DOH has accredited 23 testing facilities out of 77 which have applied.
The government aims accredit 56 more, according to Vince Dizon, president of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority and concurrent deputy chief implementer of the government’s COVID-19 response.
Dizon said the DOH has certified and accredited 22 laboratories nationwide to perform and process the real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests, and is now in the process of accrediting 58 other laboratories.
He said the government hopes to complete the accreditation of at least up to 78 laboratories by May 30 to enable the country to conduct up to 30,000 tests a day similar to countries like Singapore and Israel.
Dizon said there is a need to speed up the accreditation of the laboratories to enable government to be more aggressive in its testing to hasten the identification, isolation and treatment of those infected with COVID-19.
President Duterte, in his report to Congress, that as of April 30 and with only 19 accredited laboratories, the government has recorded an average of “6,220 to 8,935 daily capacity, exceeding the target of 8,000 test per day.”
Among the accredited testing centers in Metro Manila are the UP National Institutes of Health, Chinese General Hospital, and San Lazaro Hospital in Manila; Philippine Red Cross and Detoxicare Molecular Diagnostics Laboratory in Mandaluyong; Lung Center of the Philippines, St. Luke’s Medical Center and Victoriano Luna Hospital in Quezon City; The Medical City in Pasig City; Makati Medical Center in Makati City; St. Luke’s Medical Center-BGC in Taguig; and the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine in Muntinlupa City.
Also accredited are the Baguio General Hospital and Medical Center in Baguio City, Vicente Sotto Memorial Medical Center in Cebu, Southern Philippines Medical Center in Davao, Western Visayas Medical Center in Iloilo, and the Bicol Regional Diagnostic and Reference Laboratory in Legazpi City. — With Raymond Africa, Ashzel Hachero and Jocelyn Montemayor
