WHILE the tandem of Vice President Leni Robredo and Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan improved their voter preference by at least three to four percent, the UniTeam of former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio kept their huge lead in the April 22-25 survey of the OCTA Research Group.
The non-commissioned Tugon ng Masa survey showed that if elections were held today, majority of Filipinos would vote for Marcos (58 percent from 57 percent on April 2 to 5) and Duterte-Carpio (56 percent from 57 percent).
The survey involved 2,400 adult respondents nationwide with a margin of error of ±2 percent.
The survey showed that except for Metro Manila (46 percent from 35 percent), majority of Filipinos from Luzon (59 percent down from 66 percent), Visayas (62 percent up from 56 percent), and Mindanao (56 percent from 50 percent) as well as socio-economic classes ABC (53 percent up from 51 percent), D (60 percent up from 59 percent) and E (54 percent up from 44 percent) said they will vote for Marcos.
Robredo, while improving to 25 percent (up from 22 percent), remained in second place, followed by Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 8 percent (from 9 percent), Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 5 percent (down from 7 percent), Sen. Panfilo Lacson with 2 percent (down from 4 percent), and Faisal Mangondato with 1 percent (up from 0 percent).
Other presidential candidates in the list like former National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales and labor leader Leody de Guzman had zero percent.
Moreno emerged as the top choice for alternative president, in case the public’s first choice for president will drop out, with 12 percent, closely followed by Robredo with 11 percent, Marcos with 8 percent, Pacquiao and Lacson with 7 percent each, De Guzman and Gonzales with 1 percent each, Mangondato with 0.5 percent, former presidential spokesman Ernesto Abella with 0.2 percent and doctor-lawyer Jose Montemayor with 0.09 percent.
OCTA Research president Ranjit Rye said the survey showed one in every five voters could still change their minds about a candidate they are supporting right before the day of the election on May 9 for a variety of reasons.
The study was conducted nationwide on a face-to-face interview of 2,400 registered voters.
Rye said the voters who remain mercurial about their choices are concerned about the integrity and honesty of the bets they are supporting.
“Just like what we have seen in the first week of April, in a recent survey, we are seeing about 10 to 15 percent of the total voting population still changing their votes. It could go up around 20 percent,” he said.
He said the three factors cited by the respondents are whether or not a candidate is linked to corruption; if the candidate is caught lying; and if the aspirant gets involved in a scandal.
The OCTA Research fellow said at best, the surveys can only predict the sentiment of the respondents at the given time but the real decision will not be known until the electorate cast their votes and their votes are canvassed.
“This election is an important exercise in our democracy. I hope we all participate, get involved. We should vote, not according to the surveys, but based on our personal values, our principles and the candidates’ platform of governance,” he said.
The camp of Marcos said the latest results of the OCTA survey are a reflection of what to expect in the May 9 elections.
Lawyer Victor Rodriguez, chief of staff and spokesman of Marcos said what is more important now is turning the survey results into realty.
“The 58 percent presidential preferential share of Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. received from the OCTA Research Tugon ng Masa results, just a few days before the elections only showed that the Filipino voting population has already chosen its next president. It is high time for the populace to assert its voice and its choice, its final judgment through the ballot — for the people’s will is law,” he said.
VP RACE
In the vice presidential race, Duterte-Carpio retained the top spot (56 percent), obtaining majority support in Mindanao (82 percent from 66 percent), the Visayas (61 percent from 62 percent), and socio-economic classes D (58 percent unchanged) and E (53 percent up from 46 percent) and near majority from Luzon (49 percent down from 55 percent), Metro Manila (48 percent up from 34 percent), and socio-economic class ABC (47 percent down from 58 percent).
Senate President Vicente Sotto III remained a far second with 22 percent (from 23 percent), followed by Pangilinan who improved to 16 percent (from 12 percent), Dr. Willie Ong with 4 percent (down from 7 percent), House Deputy Speaker Lito Atienza with 1 percent (up from 0.7 percent), Manny Lopez with 0.1 percent (unchanged), Walden Bello with 0.03 percent (from 0.1 percent), and Carlos Serapio with 0.001 percent (from 0 percent).
SENATE RACE
In the senate race, broadcaster Raffy Tulfo kept his lead with a 63 percent voter preference, followed by former Public Works and Highways secretary Mark Villar (55 percent), Antique Rep. Loren Legarda (51 percent), Sen. Juan Miguel “Migz” Zubiri (49 percent), and Sorsogon Gov. Francis “Chiz” Escudero (46 percent).
Other senatorial bets in the top 12 were actor Robin Padilla (44 percent), Taguig-Pateros Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano (40 percent), Sen. Sherwin “Win” Gatchalian (39 percent), Sen. Joel Villanueva (36 percent), and former senator Jinggoy Estrada (36 percent).
Tied for 11th place were former senator JV Ejercito, Sen. Risa Hontiveros and former vice president Jejomar “Jojo” Binay (31 percent each), followed by former Quezon City mayor Herbert “Bistek” Bautista (27 percent).
Trailing in the Senate race were former presidential spokesman Harry Roque (24 percent), former police chief Guilermo Eleazar and former senator Gregorio Honasan (22 percent each) and former defense secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro (20 percent).
PARTYLIST
OCTA’s survey found that among the party list groups running in the elections, the top 10 are ACT-CIS (13.58 percent), Tingog (5.89 percent), Ako Bicol (5.2 percent), Probinsyano Ako (4.17 percent), PBA (3.22 percent), 4PS (2.93 percent), Uswag Ilonggo (2.85 percent), Senior Citizen Partylist (1.97 percent), Ang Probinsyano (1.93 percent), and Agimat (1.4 percent).
OCTA said if the elections were held today, the 10 party lists could be assured of at least two to three seats in the House of Representatives.
OCTA said 100 percent of their respondents are registered voters but only 89 percent voted in 2019 while five percent did not vote. The other five percent was still too young to vote then. — With Peter Tabingo
