THE Department of Health (DOH) yesterday said the nationwide number of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases reported daily over the past seven days has increased by 39 percent and is now almost at the 1,500-mark.
Based on its COVID-19 Case Bulletin, the DOH said there was an average of 1,467 cases daily for the period of July 4 to 10, or a total of 10,271 cases in the last seven days.
“This is 39 percent higher than cases reported from June 27 to July 3,” said the DOH.
The health department said there were 27 additional severe and critical cases during the past week, while the number of deaths reported for the same period was logged at 50.
In a radio interview yesterday, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire admitted that cases are on a rise in the country.
As seen in the past four weekly bulletins, the average daily COVID-19 cases in the country have been on an upward trend.
From only 240 cases for the week of June 6 to 12, it has continuously gone up to 436 (June 13 to 19), to 662 (June 20 to 26), and to 1,057 (June 27 to July 3).
The case growth rate, however, has been fluctuating from 30 percent for the week of June 6 to 12, to 82 percent (June 13 to 19), to 53 percent (June 20 to 26), and to 60 percent (June 27 to July 3).
Previously, Vergeire said several factors are contributing to the increasing cases in the country, among them the presence of several subvariants of COVID-19, particularly BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5.
Another possible cause is the high mobility of people which is now similar to pre-pandemic levels, and the waning immunity of vaccinated individuals.
The DOH also reported that there are currently 555 severe and critical cases in the country, as of July 10.
Of the total severe and critical cases, the report showed that 411 of them are occupying ICU beds, which account for the 17 percent of the 2,414 total nationwide.
On the other hand, there are 4,863 COVID-19 patients that are occupying COVID-19 beds, or 22.7 percent of the 21,424 total COVID-19 beds allocated nationwide.
UPTREND
Meanwhile, in a televised public briefing, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said the public should expect cases in the provinces to continue to climb with the COVID-19 Omicron subvariant cases continuously spreading.
“Definitely, we can expect that more areas will have increasing positivity rates since this COVID-19 (subvariants) has not yet spread in the entire country,” said David, adding.
So far, OCTA data shows 12 provinces have “high” COVID positivity rates, while five others have “moderate” positivity rates.
Having the highest positivity rate among the 12 is Aklan with 26.9 percent, followed by Capiz (18.8%), Laguna (18.2%), Antique (17.8%), Tarlac (16.7%), Rizal (16.6%), Pampanga (16.5%), Cavite (14.9%), Nueva Ecija (14%), Batangas (11.3%), Iloilo (11%), and Isabela (10.3%).
Among those with moderate level positivity rates, Pangasinan has the highest with 9.6 percent, followed by Bataan (9.4%), Benguet (8.1%), Bulacan (7.7%), and Cebu (5.1%).
“There are areas with more than 10% positivity rates. These are, mostly in Calabarzon, Central Luzon, and Western Visayas,” said David.
And with the timing of the surge in the regions and provinces still unknown, David said it is still uncertain when will the peak happen in those areas for the current COVID-19 wave.
“We cannot project the peak in other areas since many have yet to be breached by the Omicron subvariants,” he said.
Similarly, he said it is also uncertain on what would be the effects of a surge in a particular area considering the vaccination and booster coverage there.
“We cannot predict yet as there are still several provinces with low vaccination or booster coverage rates,” said David.
Vergeire said the public should not panic despite the upward trend in cases.
“We can see that the cases are rising so we should be careful. We don’t need to panic, but we need to be cautious,” Vergeire said.
METRO MANILA
David reiterated that COVID cases in the National Capital Region may peak later this month.
This, he said, would mean that cases will start to drop after the peak has been reached.
“For NCR, we are not expecting that cases will really soar because the growth rate for NCR is now at 31 percent only. Hopefully, NCR peaking is already forthcoming. Our projection initially is to see the peak by mid-July in the NCR. That is still possible or be delayed sometime in late July,” David said.
And with cases in the NCR expected to drop soon, he said the region shouldn’t be concerned of hospitals being overwhelmed.
He said this is because the healthcare utilization rate in the NCR remains at low level classification at 28.4 percent.
“As a whole region, NCR for example, we don’t expect it to reach over 50% if we believe that cases will start going down in the NCR sometime this July,” he said.
“We are managing this well and it looks like we won’t need to escalate the alert levels,” added David.
