CORONAVIRUS disease (COVID-19) cases in the country are projected to go up to as high as 20,000 by next week if the current trend persists, according to the independent OCTA Research.
In a televised public briefing, OCTA fellow Guido David said it will not be surprising if the number of new infections double by next week.
The Department of Health reported 10,775 cases yesterday.
“By next week, it would most likely increase, even double. We may hit 20,000 plus,” David said.
As to the projected peak in case surge driven by the Omicron variant, David said it may come as early as middle of January.
This is different from the projection of the Department of Health (DOH), which has said that the peak may happen by the end of the month.
“There are a lot of variables. It could happen by mid-January, if we follow the South Africa experience. It could also be around the end of January if it plays out a bit like past surges,” said David in an online townhall forum.
Nevertheless, the OCTA fellow said they are optimistic that the latest COVID-19 surge in cases will not linger for several months.
This, he said, is based on the situation seen in South Africa, wherein there was a higher spike than the Delta variant but lasted for just one month.
“It gives us optimism that the surge we are seeing right now will just last one month. It could be over by end of January effectively,” David said.
‘CRITICAL’
The OCTA fellow said the latest surge remains largely concentrated in Metro Manila, which currently has an average daily case of 2,314.
The National Capital Region (NCR), David said, is now at “critical risk” classification in terms of its reproduction rate and positivity rate.
Data shows that the positivity rate in NCR is now at 25 percent, while the reproduction rate stands at 5.14.
As for its average daily attack rate, OCTA said the region is at “high risk” with 16.34 per 100,000 population.
However, the region’s healthcare utilization rate is still at “low risk” at 34 percent.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Metro Manila is now at critical risk after registering 1,475 percent increase in its two-week growth rate (TWGR), and 8.79 percent average daily attack rate, while Calabarzon (Region IV-A) is at high risk with 557 percent TWGR and 1.60 average daily attack rate.
The whole country registered an 849 percent increase in the seven-day moving average of reported daily cases, 448 percent increase in the two-week growth rate, 1.66 percent average daily attack rate, and a 14.1 percent positivity rate.
OMICRON
Epidemiologist Dr. John Wong, a member of the DOH Senior Technical Advisory Group, during the Talk to the people address of President Duterte on Tuesday night, said the quick rise in COVID-19 cases in the country may be due to the Omicron variant which is said to be four times more transmissible than the more severe Delta variant.
“Although we still don’t have widespread sequencing to find out what proportion of our cases are Omicron, the rapid rise in cases looks like the signature of Omicron. Omicron doubles every two days, and this is what’s happening,” Wong said, adding there are many factors that could have led to the spike in infections.
He noted that during the recent holidays, families and friends gathered and even traveled, while there were also reports that quarantine and health protocols have been more relaxed.
Duque and vaccine expert panel member Dr. Rontgene Solante, during the Go Negosyo town hall meeting, echoed Wong’s observations that the rapid rise in COVID cases could be due to Omicron.
“During the holiday season, we have seen that the gatherings facilitated more transmission of the variant. As such, we need to suspend all mass gatherings and opt for alternative work arrangements and online activities,” Duque said.
Dr. Edsel Salvana, in a briefing yesterday, said despite the sharp increase in cases, however, many of them are mild cases especially among fully vaccinated individuals. He said the unvaccinated usually suffer from severe cases. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
