NEW COVID-19 infections in Metro Manila could reach as high as 13,000 a day by the end of August if government will not impose a two-week preventive “hard lockdown” in the metropolis as soon as possible, the independent OCTA Research Team said yesterday.
In a briefing, the group reiterated its call for a preventive, circuit-breaker lockdown in Metro Manila, epicenter of COVID-19 infections in the country.
“No country in South East Asia has been able to halt and reverse a Delta surge without a hard lockdown of major cities,” OCTA Research fellow Fr Nicanor Austriaco said, referring to the highly transmissible Delta variant of the coronavirus that has caused surges in other countries.
“Once a Delta surge begins, it accelerates in an explosive fashion,” Austriaco also said.
Based on OCTA’s projection, using the experiences of Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, the daily COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may range from 5,900 to 8,200 cases daily by August 17, and 9,100 to 13,000 by August 31.
“When we say something, it is based on data. There is science to it. We are confident with the science that backs our projection,” said OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye.
“The surge in March was already almost as bad as in other countries. That can still happen if we lose effective control of the pandemic. We are seeing now in the NCR that it is in its early stages,” said another fellow. Guido David.
The team reiterated its call for the government to impose a preventive lockdown in the NCR.
Rye said, “The intent of OCTA is to provide some sort of pre-emptive, pro-active approach to prevent the catastrophic Delta variant surge from happening. We leave it to government whatever will be their decision, whether ECQ (enhanced community quarantine) or MECQ (modified enhanced community quarantine).”
“It just cannot be the current GCQ with heightened restrictions or status quo at the moment. That will not be enough,” he added.
Aside from a a two-week hard lockdown, OCTA said the government must conduct intensive contact-tracing and accelerate vaccination in the NCR to achieve 30 percent population protection, including cutting the Sinovac two-dose interval to 14 days, while also shortening the AstraZeneca two-dose interval to eight weeks.
OCTA also asked the government to enhance the health care system and infrastructure, especially the oxygen supply.
Aside from Metro Manila, OCTA there is also a surge in Cebu City where the reproduction rate is 2.
“At 2, it is a runaway epidemic there. If this is fueled by the Delta variant, which we suspect, it’s going to be a long and painful experience for Cebuanos,” Rye said.
David said surges are also seen in Mandaue, Lapu-Lapu, Cagayan de Oro, and Laoag cities and the provinces of and Mariveles in Bataan.
“These are areas that are major concerns right now. The surges are at the very advanced stage right now,” he said.
The Department of Health said there is no surge in the NCR.
“While there is an observed increase in cases, there is no definitive evidence of a surge in the National Capital Region,” said Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire.
However, she said, the region may see a bigger spike in cases once the more transmissible Delta variant becomes a factor.
“We might see daily active cases in NCR to reach 11,000 by the end of September 2021 with the assumption that the Delta variant is 60 percent more transmissible,” she said.
Dr. Manuel Mapue, head of the DOH-NCR Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, said: “Based on our latest data, we cannot call it a surge yet. We are not yet seeing evidence of a surge, although we are indeed seeing a start in the upward trend in cases.”
“(We can call it a surge) once we see that the high number of cases becomes steady,” he added.
Vergeire appealed to independent groups involved in COVID-19 monitoring to be more careful in making pronouncements “as this may cause more panic and fear.”
