‘A vote that hopefully will humble the next man to be sworn into office on January 20, 2021 and guide him to lead America – and the world – into a future that is multilateral, that respects human rights and the individual and the rule of law…’
JOE Biden. That’s my guess, seeing all the last minute polls, tracking all the news reports, listening to the commentators, and remembering everything that’s gone in the past.
Especially the most recent past, the 2016 presidential elections that Trump won by (I guess) just about 100,000 votes.
This last bit might surprise you because didn’t Hillary win the impulse vote by 2-3 million?
So how can I say that Trump won by just about 100,000? Well because Trump beat Hillary in Pennsylvania by about 25,000 votes, and in Michigan, and in Wisconsin. If Hillary had just won those three states she would have become the first woman President of the United States. But she didn’t. And whatever the margin of Trump’s victories in those states was his margin of victory.
I think this time things will be different for a number of reasons.
In 2016 many Democrats were not energized to go to the polls because it was going to be a “walk in the park” for Hillary. So they stayed home – in enough numbers to make her lose close races. In contrast, many Trump voters came out for the first time to vote for a man who sounded like them (politically incorrect) and acted like them (macho, even boorish).
Yes — it seems to me that there must have been a virus in 2016 that made voters cast their votes for the candidates who seemed to be the direct opposite of the traditional politician, of the anti-Establishment. And very clearly Hillary was establishment. So they flocked to Trump.
This was most true of the undecided – by the end of the campaign period in 2016 this was still about 20-25% of the electorate. At the last minute, these undecided broke heavily for Trump, perhaps giving him the necessary margin of victory in the close races.
But this year the undecided is less than 10% of the vote, maybe not even 7%. Which means Americans have long made up their minds. And whether it’s through early voting, mail-in ballots, drive-thru voting or in-person voting, the American voter is making his voice heard.
And I strongly suspect they’ve decided to keep Dr. Fauci and fire Donald Trump. (Which means I can travel again to the US of A because I had sworn not to set foot in US soil for as long as Trump was President!)
Of course I may be wrong, as I was four years ago when I was almost certain about Clinton. And, heck, my own track record in choosing a winning presidential candidate at least in the Philippines is nothing for me to boast about: 0-3 and counting. But I think Donald Trump pushed things a little too far even for many lifelong Republicans, who now no longer recognize their party and may have to rebuild if indeed they lose the White House, worse if they also lose the Senate. And that’s why I suspect that Joe Biden will be America’s 46th President – and only one of a very small number of former Vice Presidents (starting with John Adams all the way to George H. W. Bush) who eventually became President on their own right.
No one makes a spectacle of electing its leaders the way Americans do. From the party nomination process to the sometimes raucous conventions, on to the campaign period all the way to the nail biting end when someone is declared winner because of the 270 electoral votes he has won.
Of course, it comes at great expense – perhaps the most expensive political exercise in the world, bar none – but it is one truly spectacular exercise by a people of the ultimate power they wield in a democracy – the power of the vote.
A vote that hopefully will humble the next man to be sworn into office on January 20, 2021 and guide him to lead America – and the world – into a future that is multilateral, that respects human rights and the individual and the rule of law, and unites rather than divides communities against each other, regions against each other, countries against each other, even continents against each other.
Of course, if by some quirk of fate Donald Trump wins again, then forget all that. And my US visa will again remain unused, this time till 2024.
Anyway, there’s the rest of the world to visit.