Q4 recovery hinges on vaccine rollout

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    Inoculation. A health worker at St. Luke’s Medical Center in Bonifacio Global City gets the COVID-19 vaccine on March 3, 2021. The vaccination was rolled out simultaneously with St. Luke’s Quezon City. (Photo by RHOY COBILLA).

    Presidential adviser on entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion sees a rebound in the economy in the fourth quarter should the vaccine inoculation goes well.

    Concepcion said the second and third quarters are critical points in the vaccination rollout to see if a recovery is possible by the last quarter.

    Concepcion said as vaccination rolls out, the entire country should be put under modified general community (MGQC) to allow the economy to open more.

    “This is the last and only chance for micro and small entrepreneurs (MSEs) to come back strong and utilize the fourth quarter as the start of their bounce back,” Concepcion said in a statement.

    Concepcion said he got feedback from one of the biggest financing companies in the country that many loans below P500,000 by MSEs are not being paid, while bigger amounts are being paid.

    Concepcion suggests that schools shall continue to be administered online for children’s safety.

    “With vaccines to start coming in by May onwards, especially in the third quarter, that will bring in a lot of confidence. ..2022 is an election year, that is the biggest stimulus when people start to spend behind election. The last quarter of 2021 which is Christmas, is going to be the chance for many of our MSMEs to get back on their feet. That should be the time that the economy must really be bouncing back,” Concepcion added.

    Concepcion said by May, the private sector-led ‘A Dose of Hope’ program will be receiving the first batch of around 2.6 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccines. The remaining 14 million doses will be delivered will be delivered in the third quarter.

    This volume includes the second batch of orders from the private sector and the LGUs.

    Concepcion said other brands such as Moderna and Novavax will also arrive in the third quarter.

    These are all on top of the national government’s vaccine orders which started coming this week from the Sinovac vaccines from China to the AstraZeneca vaccines that will come from the COVAX facility, among others.