Japan’s recovery likely stalled in Q4

    Staff members of an Izakaya, a Japanese-style dining bar, reparing to close amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Tokyo.

    TOKYO – Japan’s economic growth likely moderated in October-December after rebounding from its worst postwar recession earlier in 2020, a Reuters poll showed, a sign households and companies have yet to recover from the coronavirus pandemic’s huge hit.

    A state of emergency rolled out in January has inflicted further pain on consumption, stoking fears of another economic slump that could push Japan back into deflation.

    Analysts polled by Reuters expect the economy to have marked a quarter-on-quarter expansion of 2.3 percent in October-December, as improving exports made up for some of the weakness in consumption.

    However, that would be much slower than a 5.3 percent jump in the third quarter, when the lifting of the previous state of emergency helped the economy emerge from its worst postwar slump in the April-June quarter.

    “Consumption, especially service spending, will continue to decline while restrictions apply on economic activity,” said Masato Koike, an economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

    “A slump in January-March consumption is unavoidable.”

    Underscoring the heavy toll the pandemic took on the fragile economy, the central bank’s estimates in January show the economy likely shrank 5.6 percent in the year ending March.

    Japan’s October-December gross domestic product (GDP) data will likely highlight the challenges policymakers face in supporting the economy while preventing the spread of the virus.

    On an annualized basis, the economy likely expanded 9.5 percent in October-December after a 22.9 percent gain in the previous quarter, the poll showed.

    Even if the economy rebounds at the estimated pace in the final quarter of last year, it will remain at roughly 80 percent the level before the pandemic struck in March, analysts say.

    Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, likely rose just 1.8 percent in October-December after a 5.1 percent increase in the previous quarter, the poll showed.

    Capital spending was projected to have risen 2.6 percent, which would be the first increase since January-March last year.

    External demand – or exports minus imports – likely contributed 1.0 percentage point to October-December GDP growth, according to the poll.

    “Brisk overseas demand underpinned exports, while domestic demand got some boost from the government’s stimulus measures,” said Shinichiro Kobayashi, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting. “But the outlook remains uncertain.”