Analysts raise Asian firms’ 2020 forecasts


    Analysts have raised their estimates for Asian firms’ 2020 earnings, data showed, as hopes of a Sino-US trade deal as well as expected recovery in economic growth backed by central bank easing measures bolstered sentiment.

    Refinitiv data showed analysts raised estimates for large and mid-cap firms by 0.8 percent over the past month. They now expect earnings to grow 13 percent in 2020, compared with an estimated 4.5 percent in 2019.

    “In 2020, AeJ should see earnings recovery on a lower earnings base, and a likely bottoming out of the (chip) memory cycle, which we believe has already occurred.” said strategist Chetan Seth at Nomura Securities in Singapore, referring to Asia excluding Japan.

    The data showed Indian firms are likely to lead the region with earnings growth of 36 percent in 2020, followed by South Korea and Vietnam.

    “India continues to be our largest overweight market. Earnings revisions are improving thanks to corporate tax cuts improving domestic demand,” said analyst Patrick Pan at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong.

    Chinese firms’ earnings are estimated to grow 14 percent.

    Asian shares have seen a strong rally after tepid growth last year, mostly due to an anticipated earnings recovery in 2020, analysts said.

    MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan has risen 10.5 percent so far this year.

    “We expect 8 percent total USD returns for Asia Pacific regional equities in 2020 as a global cyclical upswing spurs a regional profit recovery,” said Goldman Sachs in a report.

    “But since markets have already priced in this prospect, valuations may compress leading to positive, but moderate, performance.” – Reuters