‘We’ve felt this before. In 1973 and 1979, when oil embargoes drained us dry. In 1997, when the Asian Financial Crisis shattered the peso’s spine. In 2008, when Wall Street’s greed hit jeepney routes in Metro Manila, Cavite and Cebu, among others.’
MISSILES are flying over Tel Aviv and Tehran, but their echoes rattle Filipino homes in Manila.
This war no longer lives in foreign countries. It’s leaking into our fuel tanks, creeping into grocery bills, smudging out household plans. Tel Aviv and Tehran are thousands of kilometers away by air, but Manila is learning — again — that distance offers no defense when the world decides to burn.
In mid-June, Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” struck Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. Iran’s reply: drones over Tel Aviv, missiles over Haifa. Civilians were buried in rubble while governments issued statements.
Now, we’re staring at consequences we didn’t vote for but must live with.
This is war without shadows — loud, costly, and unforgiving.
Brent crude spiked from $74.60 to $79.10. Goldman Sachs warns: if the Strait of Hormuz tightens, add $10 more per barrel. Barclays goes further — a deeper escalation could revive $100-per-barrel nightmares.
That’s no abstract number. That’s the tricycle fare quietly going up. That’s the cooking gas refill stretching the suweldo. That’s budget cuts for classrooms and medicines.
And look at the peso. ₱56.60 to the dollar, then ₱56.28 — and that was before the missiles flew. With every slip, imports cost more. Interest rates stay high. Wages stand still.
We’re not spectators. We’re collateral.
Eighteen OFWs bound for Tel Aviv and Amman found themselves stranded in Dubai. Some have returned, safe. Others are scarred.
One lies in intensive care in Israel. Another, wounded near Rehovot, waits for healing far from home. You won’t see them hitting the news headlines. But their pain is real, and their families wait with prayers and pounding hearts.
DMW Secretary Hans Cacdac and OWWA’s PY Caunan are moving quickly — but for nearly 700,000 Filipinos across the Middle East, this war is not a livestream. It’s a looming reality.
And still, this ripple hits deeper: our farmlands are being slowly converted into subdivisions and malls.
Two-thirds of the country’s fertilizers are nitrogen-based, heavily sourced from the Middle East. Disrupt that flow, and our harvests shrink. Food insecurity grows. Urban families tighten their belts. Rural communities suffer in silence.
As for policy, economists are raising the red flags we too often ignore.
Michael Ricafort of RCBC warns inflation could reach 4.4% by July.
Professor Leonardo Lanzona Jr. from Ateneo sees a “dangerous loop” — weak peso, rising prices, and then a weaker peso again. A financial TikTok loop — except this one doesn’t go viral, it goes to creep on your wallet, realizing your baon is not enough for a milk tea or iced latte.
This is the price of delay. This is the cost of inaction.
BSP might hesitate to cut interest rates. Growth projections may take another hit. UnionBank’s Ruben Asuncion sees a squeeze coming — one that pinches wage earners, job seekers, and entrepreneurs.
And still, the bigger question stands: Where is our leadership in a time of slow-burning crisis?
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has announced fuel subsidies — a sound response. But this cannot be the end of the conversation. It must be the beginning of coherence. Policy without coordination is like a fire truck with no water.
From Malacañang to Congress (represented by President Marcos Jr., Vice President Sara Duterte, Senate President Chiz Escudero and Speaker Martin Romualdez) and from BSP and DOF to DTI and DA (represented by Governor Eli Remolona Jr. and Finance Secretary Ralph Recto to DTI Secretary Cristina Aldeguer-Roque and Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr.), this is the test: will leaders act with resolve, or retreat behind talking points?
Many were surprised when the 55.87 million Filipino youth didn’t reject celebrity gimmicks, including traditional politicians. They chose issue-based politics. And if you listen to them closely, they’re not just saying “protect our future.” They’re asking: “What are you doing with our present?”
Inflation isn’t just a macroeconomic term — it’s the reason students skip breakfast or parents delay medicine. The peso’s slide isn’t just a chart — it’s the shadow behind every postponed plan or unmet dream.
This war doesn’t just redraw borders. It reshapes lives.
We’ve felt this before. In 1973 and 1979, when oil embargoes drained us dry. In 1997, when the Asian Financial Crisis shattered the peso’s spine. In 2008, when Wall Street’s greed hit jeepney routes in Metro Manila, Cavite and Cebu, among others.
Today is no different. Only the missiles are louder. The stakes, higher. When the peso weakens, our conviction shouldn’t.
