‘Silence is no longer an option — not when the shadow of conflict edges ever closer to Batanes and Calayan Islands. The time for foresight is now.’
Asemiconductor tycoon in Taiwan recently described a “Trojan Horse” lurking within their borders. He wasn’t merely speaking of electoral theatrics; his warning hinted at internal vulnerabilities – perhaps economic dependencies or political divisions – that could be exploited.
To some, that may sound like electoral theater or a businessman overreaching. But to those paying attention in Manila, it is a blaring signal, not just across the Luzon Strait, but into our backyard.
We often speak of Taiwan as if it were far away. It isn’t. From Y’Ami Island in Batanes to Calayan Island in Cagayan, the skyline of southern Taiwan isn’t imagination — it’s practically within reach. This is not geographical trivia; it is geopolitical reality.
The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in Cagayan and Isabela weren’t plotted on a map in abstraction — they are quiet acknowledgements, if not admissions, that the Philippines is no longer a spectator in rising Indo-Pacific tensions.
We are a frontline state in waiting, a nation preparing not for the “if” but the “when.”
Over 160,000 Filipinos work in Taiwan. Most are breadwinners. All are lives tied to families and dreams back home.
If the unthinkable unfolds, it won’t be an abstraction. It will be names on manifests, bodies on ferry ships, shelters converted on short notice.
Repatriation wouldn’t just test our logistical capabilities — it would probe our political, moral, and humanitarian backbone. The time for the DMW to coordinate across agencies — NDRRMC, DSWD, DOLE, and Coast Guard — is not after the sirens. It’s now.
History, too, is tapping on our shoulders.
In July 1949, Taiwanese leader Chiang Kai-shek came to Baguio to meet with President Elpidio Quirino. The enemy then wasn’t disinformation or chip wars but communism.
They spoke of building a Far Eastern bulwark against its spread — a vision that placed Manila and Taipei on the same side of the barricades.
For years, we recognized the Republic of China (Taiwan) as the legitimate government of China.
That changed in 1975, but the connections — ideological and human — did not dissolve.
Our Chinese-Filipino community, deeply anchored in the Philippine story, carried strong ties to Chiang’s Nationalist cause.
Institutions like the Chiang Kai-shek College remain among us and many of our Filipino-Chinese friends are alumni, which is a clear reminder, not merely of history, but of values once shared.
That memory isn’t nostalgia — it’s a warning. Taiwan was not just a neighbor; it was a cause we once stood for. And the question today is whether we have drifted too far from that clarity.
Yet even in peacetime, we are already exposed.
The so-called “gray zone” has no front lines. It breaches borders invisibly: cyber intrusions, troll farm propaganda, information warfare calibrated to divide, distract, and disorient.
These aren’t threats of tomorrow — they’re here, wearing no uniforms, but weakening institutions day by day.
Defense is no longer just about missiles. It is about bandwidth. It is about belief. It is about whether a citizen can tell the difference between dissent and deception.
And then there’s the circuitry.
It’s a bitter irony: we are one of the world’s largest exporters of semiconductors, yet over 70% of our wafer sources flow from Taiwan.
Calamba, Mactan, and Clark may be far from Taipei, but they are one supply-chain rupture away from stagnation. This is not theory; it’s arithmetic.
A Taiwan conflict cuts through our economy like a live wire — snapping exports, chilling investors, upending tourism, and puncturing the quiet lifeline of remittances that keep thousands of Filipino families afloat from Luzon to Mindanao.
The solution is not to flinch, but to brace with foresight.
A DTI- and DOST-led task force should already be mapping alternative wafer sources, courting near-shoring investments, and building redundancy into our ATP (Assembly, Testing, and Packaging) sector.
We do not have the luxury of reacting. We must be pre-positioned. Economic resilience is no longer a spreadsheet — it is national defense.
All this unfolds while we walk a delicate diplomatic tightrope.
We recognize One China, yes, but we maintain unofficial ties with Taiwan.
Our National Security Policy now rightly marks Taiwan as a “major concern” — a phrase that, if it is to have meaning, must be backed by a clear-eyed strategy.
A mentor in foreign relations told me that we should never underestimate the power of Track 2 diplomacy.
In this situation, we must prioritize and actively engage in behind-the-scenes discussions with Taiwan, leverage the subtle strength of its outreach programs for quiet collaboration, and deepen our involvement in Southeast Asian regional efforts.
These aren’t just supplementary actions; they are essential tools to proactively prevent conflict and should never be ignored or treated as afterthoughts.
Because if the Strait burns, the embers will land here first.
We can no longer afford the illusion of safe distance.
The “Trojan horse” may be pacing before Taiwan’s gates, but its shadow is already draped across our northern coastline. What remains is not a question of observation, but of responsibility.
Can we move from being proximal observers to becoming proactive stabilizers?
Can we coordinate, prepare, and respond — not with alarm, but with purpose?
The clock ticks in real time now. And in that narrowing space between warnings and events, we must decide who we are as a nation tethered to tension — by geography, economy, and history itself.
