‘So, is there a US candidate? My gut feel is yes — and it’s any and all of the candidates. In the end I suspect that the Americans will work with whoever is elected by the Filipino people…’
IN many political circles, there is an unavoidable talk of who the big powers are backing for the May elections.
“Common” wisdom has it that China, yes China, will be more than happy to see a Marcos victory. The same “common” wisdom will tell you that America, yes America, will be putting its eggs in the Leni basket.
Methinks it’s not all that simple, and that some of this type of “common” wisdom is actually in part wishful thinking.
China, as far as I know, has almost never been involved in regime change or in exerting influence in the electoral exercise of foreign countries in order to install a friendly regime.
The same though cannot be said of the United States; from the 1920s onwards and arguably even more so after World War II America has been more actively dipping its fingers in electoral exercises in otherwise independent nations, succeeding most of the time and failing in others.
We need only recite some of the instances: the ouster of leaders in such countries as Iran, South Vietnam, in Libya and Syria; the attempt to oust Venezuela’s leader, and, of course, here in the Philippines the alleged fingerprints in the election of Ramon Magsaysay and the clear role in the ouster of Marcos. This “track record” is what makes the idea (the possibility?) of American “influence” on next month’s polls appealing to some, while causing apprehension in others.
But does America have a candidate, and is it VP Leni?
Wags say that Uncle Sam is wary of Marcos Jr. because of his “closeness” to China. That’s interesting to me — because Ferdinand Marcos opened diplomatic ties with Beijing only after Richard Nixon himself opened ties between Washington and Beijing! That Marcos move was a coup of some sorts as it established the Philippines as the first South East Asian country to have broken from the Cold War chains imposed by the US in order to craft an independent foreign policy. (It also in a way took out a big part of the sting of the local communist insurgency.)
If the “common” wisdom logic is correct, it implies that the US does not want the Philippines to have an independent foreign policy.
On the other hand, what’s the logic to argue that their candidate is VP Leni? Because she is like a second Cory? Of course, Americans loved President Aquino and she repaid them by not demanding that our onerous loans be forgiven. I can imagine, however, that hawks within the US national security structure look with worry on allegations that the “pink” campaign is in bed with the reds, not of the Marcos kind but of the hammer-and-sickle kind.
For sure, that is what gives them pause.
So, is there a US candidate? My gut feel is yes — and it’s any and all of the candidates. In the end I suspect that the Americans will work with whoever is elected by the Filipino people, more so if the margin of victory is decisive. They’re more worried about Ukraine at this point; they’re now talking to Maduro of Venezuela to secure oil supply, while President Biden is more focused on the mid-term elections this November that his party, the Democrats, might very well lose.
That’s the election that matters much more to the US Administration, not ours.
